数字经济赋能养老产业的增长路径研究

Research on the Growth Path of the Elderly Care Industry Enabled by Digital Economy

数字经济的发展为养老产业增长注入新动能,智慧养老成为一种有效应对人口老龄化的数字化治理模式,推动养老产业增长。基于组态视角,采用模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA),以养老产业增长为结果变量,以中国内地30个省级行政区(不含数据缺失较多的西藏)为案例,从数字经济的基础、发展及规模三个维度,探寻数字经济发展赋能养老产业增长的组态路径,为养老产业的数字化转型提供参考。研究发现:数字经济单一要素并不构成养老产业高增长水平的必要条件,养老产业高增长水平是数字经济多种要素协同作用的结果;“数字基础设施”与“数字人才”是各地发展养老产业的核心要素,“数字应用”、“数字交易”及“数字金融”等要素更多情况下作为辅助条件发挥作用;“数字基础设施+数字人才”奠基型、“数字人才+数字应用”推动型、“数字化基础+规模”驱动型、“数字化基础+发展+规模”引领型是四条有效增长养老产业的路径。基于此,提出发挥要素协同作用、强化数字化基础建设及打造数字化养老平台等对策建议,从而实现养老产业的高质量增长。

The development of the digital economy has injected new momentum into the growth of the elderly care industry,and intelligent elderly care has become a digital governance model that effectively responds to the aging population and promotes the growth of the elderly care industry.Based on the perspective of configuration,fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method(fsQCA)was adopted,with the growth of the elderly care industry as the result variable and 30 provincial administrative regions on the Chinese mainland as cases,to explore the configuration path of the growth of the elderly care industry enabled by the development of digital economy from three dimensions of the foundation,development and scale of the digital economy,and to provide reference for the digital transformation of the elderly care industry.The research finds that:1)The single element of digital economy does not constitute the necessary condition for the high growth level of the elderly care industry,and the high growth level of the elderly care industry is the result of the synergistic effect of multiple elements of the digital economy.2)“Digital infrastructure”and“digital talent”are the core elements of the development of the elderly care industry,and“digital application”,“digital transaction”and“digital finance”are more often used as auxiliary conditions to play a role.3)The“digital infrastructure+digital talent”foundation type,“digital talent+digital application”driven type,“digital foundation+scale”driven type,and“digital foundation+development+scale”leading type are four effective growth paths for the elderly care industry.Based on this,countermeasures and suggestions such as giving play to the synergistic effect of factors,strengthening the digital infrastructure and building a digital pension platform are proposed to achieve high-quality growth of the elderly care industry.