2017-2022年中国内地结核病发病率时空特征分布及影响因素

Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of incidences of tuberculosis in China's mainland,2017-2022

目的分析中国内地结核病发病率的时空分布特征及其影响因素,为相关部门制定政策方针提供科学依据。方法以2017—2022年中国内地结核病发病率为研究对象,收集相关影响因素数据,采用空间自相关分析方法建立空间滞后模型探究结核病发病率的时空分布特征,并筛选出结核病发病的重要影响因素。结果2017—2022年中国内地31省市结核病报告发病率分别为60.53/10万、59.27/10万、55.55/10万、47.76/10万、45.37/10万、39.76/10万,呈逐年下降趋势。全局Moran’sⅠ分析结果显示,结核病发病具有时空聚集性。结核病报告发病率空间分布图及LISA聚集图分析结果显示,结核病发病率呈现出由西到东递减趋势。空间滞后模型将6个影响不明显因素的系数收缩为0,筛选出人均GDP(系数为-0.259)、城镇失业率(系数为-0.198)、全年日照时长(系数为-0.332)、年平均相对湿度(系数为-0.433)、年平均NO 2浓度(系数为-0.263)、年平均PM 10浓度(系数为-0.336)6个重要因素。结论2017—2022年中国内地结核病发病率逐年下降并呈现出西高东低中部平稳的空间差异性及空间聚集性;社会经济、气候及空气污染对结核病发病有明显的影响。相关部门应更加重视西部地区结核病的防治,采取针对性的预防措施。

Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in China's mainland,and provide scientific basis for relevant departments to formulate policies and guidelines.Methods TB incidence in China's mainland from 2017 to 2022 was as the research object,and data of relevant influencing factors were collected.The spatial autocorrelation analysis method was adopted to establish a spatial lag model to explore the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of TB incidence,and the important influencing factors of TB incidence were screened.Results From 2017 to 2022,TB incidence reported in 31 provinces and cities in China's mainland were 60.53/100000,59.27/100000,55.55/100000,47.76/100000,45.37/100000 and 39.76/100000,respectively,showing a yearly downward trend.Global Moran’sⅠanalysis showed that TB incidence presented spatial-temporal aggregation.The spatial distribution map and the local indicators of spatial association(LISA)aggregation diagram analysis results for the incidence of reported TB showed a decreasing trend from west to east in TB incidence.In the spatial lag model,the coefficients of 6 insignificant factors shrank to 0,and 6 important factors were screened out:gross domestic product(GDP)per capita(coefficient-0.259),urban unemployment rate(coefficient-0.198),annual sunshine duration(coefficient-0.332),annual mean relative humidity(coefficient-0.433),annual mean NO 2 concentration(coefficient-0.263),and annual mean PM 10 concentration(coefficient-0.336).Conclusion From 2017 to 2022,TB incidences in China's mainland declined year by year,and presented spatial difference and spatial aggregation:high in the east,low in the west,and stable in the middle area.Social economy,climate and air pollution have strong effects on the incidence of TB.Relevant departments should pay more attention to the prevention and treatment of TB in the western region and take targeted preventive measures.