南水北调中线工程通水对沿线地区经济增长的影响——基于受水区和水源地的检验

Analysis of the Impact of the Central Line Project of South-to-North Water Diversion on the Economic Growth of Regions Along the Line:Based on the Testing of Water-Receiving Areas and Water-Source Areas

水资源配置深刻影响着地区经济发展格局。南水北调工程为优化水资源配置、缓解我国北方地区水资源严重短缺问题提供有力支撑,但工程运行通水能否进一步推动受水区和水源地经济增长呢?以南水北调中线工程为例,运用合成控制法,分析工程运行通水对受水地区以及水源地区经济增长的影响,并检验其中的作用机制。研究表明:(1)从整体效应来看,中线工程通水显著提高了受水区和水源地的人均GDP和夜间灯光亮度,说明工程通水有效促进了两地区经济增长量和经济活跃度的提升。就动态效应来看,工程通水对受水区经济增长的促进作用存在一定滞后性,通水后的前两年对水源地经济发展产生微弱冲击,此后呈现正向促进作用。(2)中线工程通水运行对受水区和水源地产业结构合理化均产生显著正向影响,产业结构合理化程度的加深进一步促进两地区经济增长。(3)中线工程通水提升了受水区产业结构高级化程度,但对水源区产业结构高级化的影响存在一定滞后性;工程通水运行所带来的产业结构高级化效应能够显著促进两地区经济增长。(4)从经济增长的不同维度来看,受水区和水源区人均经济量的增长主要依赖于工程通水所产生的产业结构合理化效应;而经济活跃度的提升则依赖于产业结构高级化效应。最后,对推进南水北调后续工程高质量发展,充分发挥工程战略性、基础性功能提出政策建议。

The allocation of water resources has a profound impact on the regional economic development pattern.The South-to-North Water Diversion Project(SNWTP) provides strong support for optimizing water resource allocation and alleviating the serious water shortage in northern China.However,whether the operation of the SNWTP can promote the economic growth of the water-receiving areas and water-source areas still remains unclear.This article took the Central Line Project of the SNWTP as an example and used the synthetic control method to analyze the impact and mechanism of water supply on the economic growth of water-receiving areas and water-source areas.The research results showed that:(1) From the overall effect,the water transfer had a significant positive effect on the per capita GDP and nighttime light brightness of the water-receiving area and water-source area,indicating that the engineering water supply had effectively promoted the economic growth and activity of the two areas.From the perspective of dynamic effects,the promotion effect of engineering water supply on the economic growth of the water-receiving was hysteretic.In the first two years of water supply,a slight impact was shown on the economic development of the water-source area,and a positive promoting effect was shown thereafter.(2) The engineering water supply had a significant positive impact on the rationalization of industrial structure in water-receiving areas and water-source areas,and the rationalization degree of industrial structure promoted economic growth in the two areas.(3) The engineering water supply improved industrial structure sophistication in water-receiving areas,but the impact on the industrial structure sophistication in the water-source areas was hysteretic;The effects on industrial structure sophistication could significantly promote economic growth in the two areas.(4) From different dimensions of economic growth,the growth of per capita GDP in water-receiving areas and water-source areas mainly depended on the rationalization effect of industrial structure;The improvement of economic activity depended on the effect of industrial structure sophistication.Finally,this study provided policy recommendations for promoting the high-quality development of the follow-up project of the SNWTP to fully leverage its strategic and fundamental functions.