土质滑坡稳定性现状评价及发展趋势分析

Current Status Evaluation and Development Trend Analysis of Soil Landslide Stability

为准确掌握土质滑坡的稳定性情况,文中以其勘查成果为基础,通过传递系数法和圆弧滑动法开展滑坡稳定性现状的综合评价,利用变形预测分析滑坡稳定性的发展趋势。结果表明,经传递系数法和圆弧滑动法联合分析得出,在暴雨工况条件下,滑坡具欠稳定状态,失稳风险较大,现状条件下,滑坡存在失稳可能;同时,经滑坡变形预测,S1—S3在后期的增加速率均值依次为1.07、1.51、1.17 mm/期,表现出较大的增加趋势,说明滑坡稳定性后续趋于不利。

To accurately grasp the stability of soil landslides,this article is based on its exploration results.Firstly,a comprehensive evaluation of the current stability status of landslides is carried out through the transfer coefficient method and the circular sliding method,and then de-formation prediction is used to analyze the development trend of landslide stability.The results show that:through the joint analysis of the transfer coefficient method and the circular slip method,it is concluded that the landslide is in an unstable state under the rainstorm condition,and the risk of instability is high,that is,under the current conditions,the landslide may be unstable;Meanwhile,according to landslide de-formation prediction,the average increase rates of S1-S3 in the later stage are 1.07,1.51 and 1.17 mm/period,respectively,with a signifi-cant increasing trend,indicating that the stability of the landslide will tend to be unfavorable in the future.