区块链赋能生产、供销、信用合作社信任构建——基于三方演化博弈的分析

Blockchain-Enhanced Trust Framework for Production,Supply,and Credit Cooperatives:Insights from a Tri-Party Evolutionary Game Analysis

融资风险和交易对手风险引发的信任问题始终制约着农民专业合作社、供销合作社和信用合作社(以下简称为“三社”)融合向纵深发展,而区块链技术为解决这一困境提供了契机。文章通过构建“三社”信任行为策略演化博弈模型,探究区块链如何降低上述两种风险解决信任问题,深入研究区块链对“三社”信任构建的影响因素。研究表明:一是区块链对市场需求预测的作用在较为不稳定的市场中价值体现最大;二是区块链减小风险损失的作用在农业风险发生概率较高的情况下价值体现最大。因此,区块链技术应当优先在市场环境恶劣和农业自然风险高的地区推广,并适当予以补贴。

Financing and counterparty risks,central to trust concerns,have consistently impeded the com-prehensive and profound evolution of farmers'professional cooperatives,supply and marketing cooperatives,and credit cooperatives(collectively termed"the three cooperatives").The advent of blockchain technology introduces a potential solution to this challenge.This study develops an evolutionary game model reflecting the strategic trust behaviors within"the three cooperatives,"examining the capacity of blockchain to mitigate the aforementioned risks and resolve trust-related issues,and scrutinizing the determinants of blockchain's efficacy in trust enhancement among these cooperatives.The findings suggest two key insights:firstly,blockchain's utility in market demand forecasting is particularly pronounced in relatively unstable markets.Secondly,its capability to minimize risk-related losses is most significant in scenarios with elevated probabilities of agricultural risks.Consequently,it is recommended that the adoption of blockchain technology be prioritized,particularly in regions characterized by adverse market conditions and heightened agricultural risks,complemented by targeted subsidies.