2013-2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS流行特征分析:基于Joinpoint回归模型

Epidemiological characteristics of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Shanxi based on Joinpoint regression model,2013-2022

目的分析2013—2022年山西省新报告人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)/获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS)流行特征,为艾滋病防控工作提供参考依据。方法从全国健康保障疾控信息系统下载2013—2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS个案信息,对新报告HIV/AIDS病例特征进行统计学描述和分析,使用Joinpoint回归模型分析其变化趋势。结果2013—2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS共12983例,以性传播为主,男女性别比达6.19∶1(11178∶1805),平均年龄(39.65±14.49)岁,多来源于医疗机构。趋势分析显示,2013—2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS总体呈现缓慢上升趋势(AAPC=5.82%,P=0.008),50~岁年龄组中男性总体呈现上升趋势(AAPC=8.94%,P=0.001),女性呈现逐年上升趋势(APC=10.05%,P=0.001);性传播感染途径构成比中,0~24岁年龄组异性和同性性传播均呈现下降趋势(APC=-12.13%,P<0.001;APC=-6.87%,P<0.001),50~岁年龄组异性和同性性传播均呈现上升趋势(APC=7.26%,P<0.001;APC=16.70%,P<0.001);各地区新发现率变化趋势不一致;首次CD4细胞计数<200/μL的新报告病例构成比呈现逐年单调缓慢上升的趋势(APC=3.94%,P<0.001)。结论2013—2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS呈增长趋势,50~岁老年人上升趋势较快和晚发现情况较严重,建议重点关注50~岁老年人,采取精准干预措施,扩大艾滋病筛查力度,有效遏制艾滋病传播。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trends of newly reported human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)cases in Shanxi province during 2013-2022 and provide theoretical evidence for the prevention and control of AIDS.Methods The information of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Shanxi from 2013 to 2022 were downloaded from the National Health Security and Disease Control Information System,and the characteristics of the newly reported HIV/AIDS cases were statistically described and analyzed,and the trends were analyzed by using Joinpoint regression model.Results A total of 12983new HIV/AIDS cases were reported in Shanxi from 2013 to 2022.The cases were mainly caused by sexual transmission,the male to female ratio of the cases was 6.19∶1(11178∶1805),and the average age of the cases was(39.65±14.49)years.The cases were mainly reported by medical institutions.The trend analysis showed that the newly reported HIV/AIDS cases from 2013 to 2022 in Shanxi showed a slight increasing(AAPC=5.82%,P=0.008).In the age group>50 years,the cases showed an increasing trend in men(AAPC=8.94%,P=0.001),and an increasing trend by year in women(APC=10.05%,P=0.001).In sexual transmission,the heterosexual transmission and homosexual transmission all decreased in age group 0-24 years(APC=-12.13%,P<0.001;APC=-6.87%,P<0.001),but the heterosexual transmission and homosexual transmission all increased in age group>50 years(APC=7.26%,P<0.001;APC=16.70%,P<0.001).The area specific trend of new detection rate was inconsistent;and the proportion of newly reported cases with the first CD4 cell count<200/μL showed a slight increasing trend by year(APC=3.94%,P<0.001)Conclusion From 2013 to 2022,newly reported HIV/AIDS cases showed an increasing trend in Shanxi.More cases aged>50 years were reported and more cases were not detected in a timely manner.It is suggested to pay close attention to the elderly,take precise intervention measures and expand the coverage of AIDS screening to effectively curb the spread of AIDS.