2005-2022年南京市其他感染性腹泻病流行趋势特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics trends of other infectious diarrhea in Nanjing City from 2005 to 2022

目的 了解南京市其他感染性腹泻病流行特征及变化规律,为其监测工作的有效开展和制定防控措施提供依据。方法 使用Excel 2013、R 4.2.2软件对南京市2005-2022年其他感染性腹泻病报告发病率进行描述性分析,同时使用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0、Geoda 1.18.0软件分别进行Joinpoint回归、全局自相关和局部自相关分析。结果 2005-2022年南京市累计报告其他感染性腹泻病31 211例,年均发病率为22.27/10万。男、女年均发病率差异存在统计学意义(24.94/10万VS 19.74/10万;χ^(2)=23.25,P<0.001),5岁以下年龄组占比高(58.48%)。从时间分布看,流行季节由夏秋季向秋冬季转变。Joinpoint回归分析显示,2005-2022年南京市其他感染性腹泻病年报告发病率表现为先下降后上升,其中2005-2009年呈快速下降趋势,APC为-25.32(95%CI:-43.45~-1.38);2009-2022年呈上升趋势,APC为7.94(95%CI:2.91~13.21)。5岁以下年龄组报告发病率呈上升趋势,APC为7.34(95%CI:3.68~11.14);5岁及以上年龄组报告发病率在2005-2008年呈下降趋势(APC为-37.54,95%CI:-58.51~-5.95),2008-2022年变化无统计学意义(P=0.24)。空间自相关分析显示,浦口区为南京市其他感染性腹泻病“高-高”聚集区。结论 2009-2022年南京市其他感染性腹泻病发病率上升,秋冬季为发病高峰,5岁以下年龄组为高风险人群,应采取针对性措施强化监测报告和宣教工作。

Objective To analyze epidemiological characteristics trends of other infectious diarrhea(OID)in Nanjing from 2005 to 2022,and to provide scientific basis for monitoring and prevention strategy of OID.Methods The reported incidence of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Nanjing City from 2005 to 2022 was analyzed by using Excel 2013 and R 4.2.2 software to conduct the descriptive epidemiological analysis,at the same time,Joinpoint 4.9.1.0,Geoda 1.18.0 software were used to conduct JoinPoint regression,global autocorrelation and local autocorrelation analysis,respectively.Results A total of 31211 cases were reported in Nanjing City from 2005 to 2022,with an average annual incidence of 22.27/105.The incidence rate was higher in male than that in female(24.94/105 VS 19.74/105,x^(2)=23.25,P<0.001).Children under five years old accounted of 58.48%of total reported cases for a high proportion.From the time distribution,the current incidence peaks were changed from summer and autumn to autumn and winter.JoinPoint regression analysis showed that during 2005 to 2022,the incidence of OID in Nanjing City had an decreased and then increased with 2009 as the turning point,from 2005 to 2009,there was a rapid decline,APC was-25.32(95%CI:-43.45--1.38),there was an upward trend from 2009 to 2022,APC was 7.94(95%CI:2.91-13.21).Age below 5 years old had a increasing trend from 2005 to 2022,with the APC value of 7.34(95%CI:3.68-11.14).The other age group had a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2008(APC:-37.54,95%CI:-58.51--5.95),and tended to be stable from 2008 to 2022(P=0.24).Local indicators of spatial association revealed that Pukou district was high-high clusters area of OID in Nanjing.Conclusions The incidence of OID has a increasing trend in recent years,epidemic peaks are occurred in autumn and winter,and aged below 5 years old is the high-risk population.Related surveillance,publicity and education should be strengthen to prevent and control OID.