中美免疫规划疫苗需求量预测方法及管理模式比较

Comparison of Vaccine Demand Forecasting Methods and Management Models for Immunization Programs in China and United States

疫苗接种是预防和控制相关传染病最经济、最有效、最方便的手段。随着我国免疫规划的进展,疫苗种类与需求量日益增加,疫苗分配不均、疫苗短缺或过剩的情况也时有发生。对疫苗需求量进行合理预测,能够确保疫苗的合理供应,是保障人民健康、树立人群免疫屏障的基础。我国早期主要根据历史经验对疫苗需求进行大致估算,后期套用公式进行测算,但由于招采主体分散、季节性变动、疾病暴发等情况,有时并不能满足真实使用的需求。美国疾病控制与预防中心主要根据美国免疫实施咨询委员会的建议对不同人群需求进行预测,受益于较早开展的信息化管理,人口数据和疫苗数据较为翔实完善,使得需求预测便于开展,也易于做得精准。作为世界上较早开展相关探索与实践的国家,美国采用管理模式的迭代以平衡需求量预测的不稳定性,是目前世界范围内较为成熟的体系,值得我国借鉴。该研究对中美两国疫苗需求量预测方法和管理模式进行比较,参考相关经验,为我国后续发展提供参考。

Vaccination is the most economical,effective,and convenient means for preventing and controlling infectious diseases.With the continuous advancement of China’s immunization program,the types and demands of vaccines are increasing,but there are also problems such as uneven distribution,tight supply,or surplus supply.Accurate prediction of vaccine use can ensure reasonable supply and provide basic support for maintaining people’s health and building immune barriers in the population.In the early stage,the demand for vaccine in China is roughly estimated based on historical experience,and in the later stage,the demand is estimated by formula.However,due to the dispersion of recruiters,seasonal changes or disease outbreaks,sometimes it could not meet the real demand for vaccine use.The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)predicts the demand of different populations according to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Implementation in the United States.Thanks to the information management carried out earlier,the population data and vaccine data are more detailed and perfect,which makes the demand prediction easy to carry out and accurate.As the country that carried out related exploration and practice earlier in the world,the United States adopts the iteration of management model to balance the instability of demand forecast,which is a relatively mature system in the world at present and worthy of reference for our country.To compare the methods and management models of vaccine demand prediction between China and United States,and to provide reference for the future development of China based on relevant experiences.