中国新能源汽车未来10年周期性和结构性趋势展望

Prospects for the cyclical and structural trends of China's new energy vehicles in the next ten years

中国新能源汽车行业经历20多年发展,核心技术与产业化已经实现全球领先,未来10年对于新能源汽车能否形成可持续发展模式至关重要。需围绕新能源汽车市场的不确定性探求和发现其中的确定性规律,对中国新能源汽车未来10年的周期性和结构性发展趋势进行分析与判断。主要结论包括:从目前到2026年,新能源汽车市场渗透率仍保持快速增长,以新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏电池“新三样”为代表,新能源革命将取得突破性进展;到2030年,新能源汽车盈利能力实现转正,新能源的发展将基于新能源汽车演化到新能源革命;到2035年,新能源汽车与新能源革命的重点将从技术革命转移到社会观念与商业模式革命。同时讨论了中国新能源汽车进入新发展阶段,可能存在内部竞争加剧、产能过剩、市场波动和不确定性增加等挑战,并提出了应对挑战和风险防范的可行解决方案。

With more than twenty years of development,China has become a world leader in the core technologies and industrialization of new energy vehicle(NEV)industry.Therefore,it is a great concern to China to ensure the sustainable development of new energy vehicles(NEVs)for the next ten years.This research aims to explore and uncover the laws of certainty from the uncertainty of NEV market,and to analyze and predict the cyclical and structural trend of NEVs'development over the next ten years in China.The main conclusions are as follows:From now to 2026,the market penetration of the NEV will continue to maintain a rapid growth.The new energy revolution,with NEVs,lithium batteries and photovoltaic cells as its three emerging pillars,will make a breakthrough.By 2030,NEVs will achieve profitability.Based on the development of NEVs,the development of new energy will turn into a new energy revolution.By 2035,the priorities of NEVs and the new energy revolution will change from the technological innovation into social concepts and business models reforms.The paper also discussed the possible challenges,including intensified internal competition,overcapacity,market fluctuations and increased uncertainty,which may impede China's NEVs to enter a new level of development,Meanwhile,it proposed feasible solutions to respond to these challenges and risks.