考虑专家可靠性的概率犹豫模糊HAZOP风险评级方法

A Probabilistic Hesitant Fuzzy Method for HAZOP Risk Sorting Considering Expert Reliability

为准确获取危险与可操作性分析(HAZOP)识别出的危险的风险分级与排序信息,进而提高HAZOP分析的质量和效率,提出一种考虑专家可靠性的概率犹豫模糊风险评级方法。首先以概率犹豫模糊集表征危害风险评价信息,旨在充分汇聚HAZOP专家组的集体智慧;其次,提出了一类参数可调的概率犹豫模糊Tversky相似性测度,用于风险评级过程中评价信息间相似性的度量;然后考虑到HAZOP专家给出准确评价能力的差异,构建了专家可靠性度量方法与相应的概率犹豫模糊群体评价信息融合方法,并在此基础上进一步发展了适用于HAZOP风险评级的概率犹豫模糊逼近理想解评级法(PHFTOPSIS-Sort);最后,建立基于所提方法的HAZOP分析流程,并以某LNG低温检测设备为例进行分析。结果表明:H_(1)等2个危害被评为风险可忽略级别,H_(8)等8个危害被评为最低合理可行级别,对应排序为H_(9)>H_(10)>H_(3)>H_(7)>H_(5)>H_(6)>H_(8)>H_(4)。

To accurately obtain the risk ranking and classification information of hazards identified by hazard and operability study(HAZOP),and then improve the quality and efficiency of HAZOP analysis,a probabilistic hesitant fuzzy risk sorting method considering expert reliability was proposed.Firstly,the hazard risk evaluation information was characterized by probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set,aiming to fully gather the collective wisdom of HAZOP experts.Secondly,a class of parameter adjustable PHF-Tversky similarity measures was proposed for the similarity measurement of evaluation information.Then,considering the differences in the ability of HAZOP experts to give accurate evaluation,the method of expert reliability measurement and the corresponding probabilistic hesitant fuzzy group evaluation information fusion method were constructed,and the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution-sort(PHFTOPSIS-Sort)method for HAZOP risk sorting problem was further developed on this basis.Finally,the HAZOP analysis process based on proposed method was constructed,and take LNG cryogenic testing equipment for example to analyze.The results show that two hazards,including H_(2)/,are sorted into Negligible Level,another 8 hazards,including H_(8),are sorted into As Low As Reasonably Practicable level and the corresponding ranking is H_(9)>H_(10)>H_(3)>H_(7)>H_(5)>H_(6)>H_(8)>H_(4).