乡村人口减少对耕地利用转型的作用路径研究

Impact pathways of rural population reduction on arable land transition

人地关系是社会生态系统可持续发展的核心,探究乡村人口变化对耕地利用转型的影响机制,对调控乡村地域系统、保障粮食安全有重要意义。论文将耕地利用转型解构为空间布局转型、数量结构转型、利用方式转型与功能效率转型4个方面,构建一个乡村人口减少影响耕地利用转型的分析框架,在此基础上提出3组假设,并以江苏睢宁县为例用计量模型予以实证。结果表明:(1)乡村人口变化分别通过影响耕地空间布局转型、数量结构转型与利用方式转型而综合作用于功能效率转型;(2)乡村人口减少对耕地空间布局转型有正向作用,而空间布局转型进一步对其功能效率转型有促进作用,即乡村人口每下降1%,耕地空间集聚水平就提升1.352%,耕地空间集聚水平每提高1%,功能效率会相应提高0.136%;(3)乡村人口流失加剧了耕地数量结构转型,进而导致耕地功能效率降低,阻碍功能效率转型,即乡村人口每向外转移1%,耕地向其他农用地转移数量就会增加0.248%,耕地向其他农用地每转移1%,粮食生产效率则下降0.097%;(4)乡村人口减少有利于耕地向现代化利用方式转变,促进耕地利用方式转型,进而提升耕地功能效率,即乡村人口每下降1%,耕地现代化利用水平就会提升0.488%,耕地利用现代化水平每提升1%,耕地生产效率提高0.135%。研究阐明了乡村人口减少对耕地利用转型的作用路径,可为乡村人地关系与乡村转型发展调控提供借鉴。

Human-environment relationship is the core of the sustainable development of social and ecological systems,and it is of great significance to explore the mechanism of influence of rural population change on the transition of arable land in order to regulate the rural territorial system and guarantee food security.In this study,the transition of arable land was deconstructed into four aspects,namely,spatial layout transition,quantitative structural transition,utilization transition,and functional efficiency transition.An analytical framework was constructed to analyze the impact of rural population change on the transition of arable land,and three sets of hypotheses were put forward on the basis of this framework,which are empirically tested by constructing an econometric model for Suining County of Jiangsu Province as a case study.The results show that:1)Rural population change has a comprehensive effect on the transition of arable land functional efficiency by affecting the transition of arable land spatial layout,quantitative structure,and utilization mode,respectively.2)Rural population transfer has a positive effect on the enhancement of arable land spatial agglomeration,and the increased spatial agglomeration of arable land further promotes its functional efficiency—when rural population decreases by 1%,the level of spatial agglomeration of arable land increases by 1.352%.For every 1%increase in the level of spatial agglomeration of arable land,functional efficiency will correspondingly increase by 0.136%.3)Rural population loss intensifies the transition of the quantitative structure of arable land,which in turn leads to a reduction in the functional efficiency of arable land—a 1%migration of rural population results in a 0.248%increase in the transfer of arable land to other agricultural uses,and conversely,each 1%transfer of arable land to other agricultural uses is associated with a 0.097%decline in grain production efficiency.4)The reduction of rural population is conducive to promoting the transition of arable land to a modernized mode of utilization,which in turn enhances the functional efficiency of arable land utilization—a decrease of 1%in rural population correlates with a 0.488%increase in the level of modernized utilization of arable land.Each 1%increase in the modernization level of arable land utilization is associated with a 0.135%improvement in arable land productivity.This article elucidated the pathways through which the reduction of rural population influences the transition of arable land utilization,which can provide a reference for the regulation of rural human-environment relationship and rural transition and development.