旅游信息流对假期客流的时空影响效应研究——以淄博市为例

Spatial-temporal effects of tourism information flow on tourist flow during the holiday:Taking Zibo City as an example

数字浪潮下,线上旅游信息流动对线下实体客流联系的影响日渐加强,精细化时空尺度下的旅游信息流影响作用有待系统性地探究。2023年掀起了淄博市旅游热潮,论文以此为对象,通过百度迁徙和百度指数大数据构建以淄博市为中心的有向假期客流和旅游信息流,分析其空间格局特征,运用多元线性回归方法建立旅游信息流对假期客流的影响模型,探究不同时空尺度下影响作用的异质性,研究表明:(1)旅游信息流对假期客流存在时间滞后的促进效应,假期前累计的旅游信息流对假期客流亦能起到显著的正向影响;(2)不同空间尺度客源地存在旅游信息流影响效益峰值的时间差异,山东省内城市受旅游信息流促进作用的迭代速度较外省更快;(3)在假期客流圈层格局基础上,旅游信息流的促进效应可以有效解释淄博市与区域中心城市产生跨区域假期客流联系的新现象。基于此,未来城市发展可强化数字驱动的文旅网络、优化省域内旅游客流联系,充分发挥数字经济时代下城市旅游信息流动影响带动实体旅游客流发展的效益。

Under the background of digitalization,the impact of online tourism information flow on offline physical tourist flow is increasingly strengthened.This study took the tourism boom in Zibo City during the May Day holiday in 2023 as an example,and used the big data of Baidu Migration and Baidu Index to directionally reconstruct the tourist flow during the holiday and tourism information flow of each city to Zibo.On the basis of clarifying the spatial characteristics of both flows,this study used multiple linear regression models to quantitatively examine the heterogeneous effects of tourism information flow on tourist flow during the holiday at different spatial and temporal scales.The main conclusions are as follows:1)Tourism information flow had a time-lag promoting effect on tourist flow during the holiday.The accumulated tourism information flow before the holiday also had a significant impact on tourist flow during the holiday.2)There was a time difference in the peak effect of tourism information flow at different spatial scales.Cities in Shandong Province were responding faster than those in other provinces due to the promotion effect of tourism information flow.3)In addition to the zonal pattern of tourist flow,the promotion effect of tourism information flow can effectively explain the new phenomenon of cross-regional tourist flow connections between some city-dyads.Based on the conclusions of this study,it is feasible to guide specific cities to strengthen digital-driven tourism network and optimize tourist flow connections within the province,for the purpose of maximizing the effects of tourism information flow on promoting the development of tourist flow in the era of digital economy.