疫情期间中国春运人口流动网络特征及其影响因素

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Population Flow Network during China's Spring Festival under COVID-19 Pandemic

基于COVID-19疫情爆发时期(2020年)与疫情防控常态化时期(2021年)2个阶段春运出行期与返程期的城际人口流动数据,采用复杂网络方法刻画疫情影响下中国春运人口流动网络特征变化,并借助二次指派程序(QAP)识别了影响人口流动网络变化的因素。结果表明:(1)疫情爆发时期春运人口流动网络规模骤减,相邻城市间短距离人口流动联系取代中长距离的人口流动,表现出“小世界”特征,疫情防控常态化后人口流动网络规模与流动距离回升。(2)春运人口流动网络格局受疫情影响产生了一定变化,但人口向东部沿海地区中心城市、各地省会城市集聚的根本态势没有发生改变,人口流动网络社团划分在疫情不同阶段总体保持稳定。(3)疫情病例、各城市间空间距离对春运人口流动网络的负向影响程度逐渐下降,经济发展水平差异的影响力虽有弱化趋势,但依旧十分显著;城市常住人口、旅游服务、高等教育、交通发展及医疗服务水平差异对春运人口流动网络的正向影响逐渐提高。

Based on the population flow data of the China 's Spring Festival travel and return periods during the COVID-19 outbreak(2020) and the normalization stage of pandemic prevention and control(2021),this study uses the complex network analysis method to explore the changes in the characteristics of population flow network during the Spring Festival travel and return periods,and analyzes the determinants that affect the changes in the population flow network by the means of the quadratic assignment procedure(QAP) analysis method.The results are as follows:1) The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp decrease in the size of the population mobility network,a reduction in population mobility at medium and long distances,and an increase in short-distance population mobility links between adjacent urban areas,which presented a population mobility network with relatively "small world" characteristics.With the normal development of epidemic prevention and control,the scale of the population mobility network gradually rebounded.2)Although the pattern of China's long-term population mobility network has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and has changed to a certain extent,the fundamental trend of population agglomeration to major cities in the eastern coastal areas has not changed,the community division of population mobility network remained stable in different stages of the pandemic.3) The negative impact of factors related to the COVID-19 cases and spatial distance between cities on the population mobility network during the Spring Festival is gradually declining.Although there is a weakening trend in the influence of economic development level,it is still significant.However,the influence of urban permanent population,tourism development level,higher education level,transportation development level and medical service level on the population mobility network has also gradually increased during the Spring Festival.