电子商务发展对县域共同富裕水平的影响——来自电子商务进农村综合示范县的证据

Impact of E-commerce Development on County Common Prosperity Level:Evidence from the Demonstration County for E-commerce in Rural Areas

文章基于共同富裕的“发展”和“共享”两大内涵,结合县域发展特征,从经济实力、发展动力、收入分配和服务普惠4个维度构建县域共同富裕评价体系,使用投影寻踪法对中国2008—2021年1663个县域共同富裕水平进行测度,并借助电子商务进农村综合示范县政策作为准自然实验,采用多期DID和空间DID模型探究了电子商务发展对县域共同富裕的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:(1)中国县域共同富裕水平整体显著提高,但区域间差距扩大,呈现出“东部高、中部快、西部稳、东北滞后”的发展趋势。(2)电子商务进农村综合示范县政策显著提高了县域共同富裕水平,且存在正向空间溢出效应,政策效果随时间推移增强。(3)异质性分析发现,在人力资本水平更高以及县域治理能力更强的地区,电子商务发展对县域共同富裕的促进效应更为显著。(4)机制分析表明,电子商务发展通过释放市场潜力和优化就业结构实现强发展和促共享,进而提升县域共同富裕水平。

Based on the two connotations of development and sharing of common prosperity,and combining with the development characteristics of counties,this paper constructs the evaluation system of county-level common prosperity from four dimension which are economic strength,development forces,income distribution and inclusive service.It uses the projection pursuit method to measure the common prosperity level of 1663 Chinese counties from 2008 to 2021.With the help of the policy of demonstration county for e-commerce in rural areas as a quasi-natural experiment,it empirically tests the impact of e-commerce development on county common prosperity and its mechanism using a multi-period and spatial DID model.Results show that:1) The level of common prosperity in Chinese counties as a whole has increased significantly,but the gap between regions has widened,showing the development trend of "highest in the east of China,fastest in the center of China,stable in the west of China,and slowest in the northeast of China".2) The e-commerce policy in rural demonstration counties has significantly improved the level of county common prosperity,and there is a positive spatial spillover effect,with the policy effect increasing over time.3) Heterogeneity analysis finds that the positive effect of e-commerce on county common prosperity is more significant in regions with higher level of human capital as well as stronger county governance capacity.4) Mechanism analysis shows that e-commerce development enhances the level of county common prosperity by releasing market potential and optimizing the employment structure.