湘赣边区县域共同富裕水平时空演化及其驱动因素

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Common Prosperity Level in Counties of Hunan-Jiangxi Boundary Region

扎实推进全体人民共同富裕是中国特色社会主义的本质要求。文章综合运用修正后熵值法、核密度估计、空间自相关、空间马尔可夫链和面板分位数回归等方法探究了2010—2019年湘赣边区24个县域共同富裕水平时空演化及其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内湘赣边区县域共同富裕水平相对较低,但保持持续提升的演化态势;在空间上形成“湖南片区>江西片区,湘赣边区北部县域>湘赣边区南部县域”的分布格局,且县域共同富裕水平呈现显著的空间集聚特征。(2)湘赣边区共同富裕水平的稳定性较强,县域尺度上存在显著的路径依赖和俱乐部收敛,短期内实现跨越式增长和跨级转移仍任重道远,邻域背景的空间溢出效应尚未得到有效发挥。(3)旅游发展水平、经济发展水平和科技创新水平等因素在不同分位点上的作用方向和程度存在差异。其中,经济发展水平和旅游发展水平对于湘赣边区县域共同富裕水平的提升效应显著且强烈。

It is the essential requirement of Chinese socialism to solidly promote the common prosperity of all people.This paper explores spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of common prosperity level in counties of HunanJiangxi boundary region comprehensively by applying the modified entropy method,the kernel density estimation,the spatial autocorrelation,the spatial Markov chain and the panel quantile regression.The results show that:1) The level of common prosperity was relatively low in counties of the Hunan-Jiangxi boundary region,but it maintained an evolutionary trend of continuous improvement.The common prosperity level showed the uneven spatial distribution in counties of Hunan-Jiangxi boundary region,which was higher in counties of Hunan than that in counties of Jiangxi,higher in counties of the north of Hunan-Jiangxi boundary region than that in counties of the south of Hunan-Jiangxi boundary region,and the common prosperity level of counties in Hunan-Jiangxi boundary region exhibited significant spatial agglomeration characteristics.2) The common prosperity level was relatively stable in Hunan-Jiangxi boundary region,with significant path dependence and club convergence at the county scale.Leapfrog growth and cross-level transfers of common prosperity level in short term still have a long way to go,and the spatial spillover effect of the neighboring background had not yet been effectively brought into play.3) There were differences in the direction and extent of the role of factors such as the level of tourism development,the level of economic development and the level of scientific and technological innovation in different sub-locations.Among them,the level of economic development and the level of tourism development had the strongest effect on increasing the common prosperity level in the counties of Hunan-Jiangxi boundary region.