菲律宾小马科斯政府南海政策变化解析

Analysis of Some Changes in the Philippines South ChinaSea Policy Since Marcos Jr. Taking Office

自小马科斯政府上台以来,菲律宾的南海政策发生了一些非常明显的变化,包括不断在南海挑起事端,试图固化对仁爱礁的长期占有并重返黄岩岛,强化美菲军事同盟关系,积极开展同美西方在南海地区的安全合作,加大“舆论加法律”攻势,通过炒作南海问题来博取国际社会支持等。这些变化的出现,既是菲律宾国家安全重心调整和转向的结果,也是家族政治与权力斗争激发和助推的结果,更是美国在对华竞争背景下鼓动和支持菲律宾的结果。这在很大程度上恶化了地区安全环境,影响了中国的维权效能,也为美国推进其对华战略竞争创造了有利条件,并将对中菲两国关系的发展产生强烈的冲击。不过,由于受到多种因素的影响和制约,菲律宾的南海政策不会就此发生根本性的逆转,中菲南海争端也不可能由此变得一发不可收拾。为此,中国应当采取一些更为有效的政策和措施予以理性应对。

Since the Marcos Jr.administration came to power,the Philippines South China Sea policy has undergone some very obvious changes,including constantly provoking incidents in the South China Sea,attempting to solidify its long-term occupation of Ren ai Reef and return to Huangyan Island,strengthening the US-Philippines military alliance,actively carrying out security cooperation with the US and other Western countries in the South China Sea region,stepping up the offensive of“public opinion&law”,and winning the support of the international community by hyping up the South China Sea issue.These changes are not only the result of the adjustment and shift of the Philippines national security focus,but also the result of the stimulation and promotion of its domestic family political struggles,as well as the result of the encouragement and support of the United States in the context of competition with China.These have greatly deteriorated the regional security environment,affected China s effectiveness in safeguarding its rights,created favorable conditions for the United States to advance its strategic competition with China,and will have a strong impact on the development of China-Philippines relations.However,due to the influence and constraints of various factors,the Philippines South China Sea policy would not be fundamentally reversed,and the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea will not become out of control.For China,more effective policies and measures should be taken to respond rationally.