收储制度市场化改革、收益不确定性冲击与玉米生产稳定机制研究——基于玉米主产区247个地级市的实证

Study on the Reform of the Purchasing and Storage System,the Impact of Income Uncertainty and Stable Mechanism of Corn Production:Empirical Analysis Based on 247 Prefecture-level Cities in Main Corn Producing Areas

随着收储制度市场化改革深入推进,市场风险对玉米生产影响逐渐加大,近年来甚至出现玉米市场价格明显上涨形势下种植面积依然不断下降现象。为此,本文利用2011—2020年玉米主产区247个地级市的面板数据,构建DID模型和中介效应模型,基于市场风险视角分析收储制度改革对玉米生产的影响机制,剖析国内玉米生产“价量相悖”的内在机理,探索收储制度市场化条件下粮食生产稳定机制及建议。结果显示:(1)收储制度改革对玉米种植面积、面积占比和单位面积投入呈现全面负向显著影响,其中玉米种植面积在改革后持续下降,下降幅度先减少后增加;(2)收储制度改革对于黑龙江和内蒙古玉米生产负向影响较大,而且对两省份第二积温带到第五积温带区域的影响尤为显著;(3)收储制度改革通过加剧收益不确定性影响玉米生产,具体为增加价格波动、收入波动和净利润波动,从而导致玉米种植面积下降,其中收入波动影响最大。政府应该关注收储制度改革后玉米生产的收益风险,着力推进玉米产业链向下游延伸,积极有序发展农业保险,提升农户风险识别和应对能力,从而保障玉米生产稳定。

With the deepening of market-oriented reform of the purchasing and storage system,the impact of market risks on corn production gradually exhibits its significance.In recent years,a phenomenon that the market price of corn is rising but with a decline in the planting area even occurs frequently.Therefore,this paper uses the panel data of 247 prefecture-level cities in major corn producing areas from 2011 to 2021,constructs a DID model and an intermediary effect model,analyzes the mechanism of the reform of purchasing and storage system on corn production from the perspective of market risks,and explores the mechanism of how grain production under the marketization of purchasing and storage system remains stable.The results show that:(1)The reform of purchasing and storage system has an overall negative and significant impact on corn planting area,area ratio and investment,among which the planting area has been continuously reduced after the reform,and its decline rate first decreases and then increases;(2)The reform has a considerable negative effect on corn production in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia,especially in regions from the second accumulated temperature zone to the fifth accumulated temperature zone in these two provinces.(3)The reform has aggravated income uncertainty,in terms of the increasing fluctuations in price,income and net profits,which therefore has led to the decrease in corn planting area.Among three factors,income fluctuation has the greatest influence.Therefore,it is recommended that government should focus on the revenue risk of corn production after the reform of the storage system,strive to promote the extension of the corn industrial chain downstream,actively and orderly develop agricultural insurance,and enhance the risk identification and response capability of farmers,thereby ensuring stable corn production.