中美经贸影响力测度与对比——基于贸易增加值的分析

The Measurement of Economic and Trade Influence of China and the United States and the Comparison: Analysis Based on Value Added in Trade

文章利用ADB数据库63个经济体35个部门国际投入产出表,将各国贸易增加值进行分解,并通过构建贸易依赖新指标测算2007~2022年各经济体对中美两国最终品出口、中间品出口和产业链支撑方面的贸易依赖程度,以此评估中美经贸影响力。文章发现:在世界主要国家(地区),中美两国经贸影响力都呈现上升态势;相比于其他国家对美国的最终品出口依赖,中国在中间品出口依赖和产业链支撑依赖方面更占优势,且中国在最终品出口方面的影响力也不断增加。根据中美经贸影响力特点,文章给出相应政策建议。

This paper uses international input-output tables of 35 sectors of 63 economies in ADB database to decompose value added in trade of the countries and measures the degree of trade dependence of various economies on China and the United States in terms of final product exports, intermediate product exports and industrial chain support from 2007 to 2022 by constructing a new indicator of trade dependence, so as to evaluate economic and trade influence of China and the United States. The paper shows that in major countries(regions) around the world, economic and trade influence of China and the United States is on the rise;compared with the dependence of other countries on the United States for final product exports, China has a greater advantage in dependence on intermediate product exports and industrial chain support, and China's influence on final product exports is also increasing. Based on the characteristics of economic and trade influence of China and the United States, this paper provides corresponding policy recommendations.