中国OFDI对“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的影响路径分析

Analysis of the Influencing Path of China’s OFDI on the Economic Growth of the Countries Along the Belt and Road

自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国与沿线国家在多个领域展开了广泛合作并不断加大对沿线国家的直接投资力度,带动了沿线国家的经济增长。文章基于2003~2021年中国对60个“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资(OFDI)的面板数据,构建多重链式中介效应模型,实证检验中国OFDI对“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的影响路径。结果表明,中国OFDI通过基础设施建设、生产投入增加和出口规模增长均能显著促进“一带一路”沿线国家的经济增长,其中,出口规模增长的中介效应最强。链式路径机制分析发现,“一带一路”沿线国家主要通过“中国OFDI→基础设施建设→出口规模增长→经济增长”这一路径实现经济增长。异质性分析发现,除上述路径之外,相对发达国家还可以通过“中国OFDI→生产投入增加→出口规模增长→经济增长”这一路径实现经济增长。

Since the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward, China has carried out extensive cooperation with the countries along the Belt and Road(B&R) in many fields and continuously increased direct investment in the countries along B&R, driving the economic growth of these countries. Based on the panel data of China's OFDI in 60 countries along B&R from 2003 to 2021, this paper constructs a multiple chain mediating effect model to empirically test the influencing path of China's OFDI on the economic growth of the countries along B&R. The results show that China's OFDI can significantly promote the economic growth of the countries along B&R through the infrastructure construction, the increase in production inputs and the expansion of export scale, and the mediating effect of the expansion of export scale is the strongest. The analysis of the chain path mechanism reveals that the countries along B&R realize economic growth mainly through the path of “China's OFDI→infrastructure construction→export scale expansion→economic growth”. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that in addition to the above path, the relatively developed countries can also realize economic growth through the path of “China's OFDI→increase in production inputs→export scale expansion→economic growth”.