河南省生猪价格波动及影响因素分析

Analysis on Price Fluctuation and Influencing Factors of Live Pig in Henan Province

近年来受非洲猪瘟及新冠肺炎疫情影响,生猪价格发生了剧烈波动,生猪相关产业的发展受到了巨大冲击.首先,对河南省2018年9月—2023年3月生猪月度价格波动特征进行探究,定性分析选取影响生猪价格的8个因素;其次,建立多元线性回归模型,对8个主要因素展开分析,得出影响生猪价格最主要的因素是仔猪、鸡肉、小麦麸和育肥猪配合饲料价格;第三,构建VAR模型实证分析4个主要因素对河南省生猪价格波动的影响程度.结果表明,影响生猪价格最主要的两大因素是仔猪价格和鸡肉价格,小麦麸和育肥猪配合饲料价格次之.最后,结合研究结论与现实情况,给出稳定生猪价格保持在合理范围的相关建议.

In recent years,the African swine fever and COVID-19 pandemic have caused violent fluctuations in the price of live pigs,significantly impacting pig-related industries.First,the monthly price fluctuation characteristics of live pigs in Henan Province from September 2018 to March 2023 were examined,and eight factors affecting the price of live pigs were identified through qualitative analysis.Secondly,a multivariate linear regression model was established to analyze these eight factors.It concluded that the most important factors affecting the price of live pigs were the prices of piglets,chicken,wheat bran,and fattening pig compound feed.Thirdly,a VAR model was constructed to empirically analyze the influence of these four main factors on the price fluctuation of live pigs in Henan Province.The results showed that the two most important factors affecting the price of live pigs were the prices of piglets and chicken,followed by the prices of wheat bran and fattening pig compound feed.Finally,based on the research conclusions and the actual situation,relevant suggestions are provided for stabilizing the price of live pigs to maintain a reasonable range.