面向碳中和的中国能源转型路径思考

On China’s Energy Transition Pathway Towards Carbon Neutrality

基于气候变化与能源转型的背景,论述中国能源转型过程中面临的能源结构以煤为主、能源需求刚性增长以及碳中和时间紧迫三大挑战,重点探讨2060年一次能源结构中可再生能源占比80%技术路线在逻辑上的可行性。基于不同能源转型路径的对比分析,指出中国碳中和路径的多元化特性,提出综合考虑经济成本、环境代价以及系统可靠性的路径优选方法,以期为实现碳中和以及能源转型目标提供理论基础和实践参考。

In the context of climate change and energy transition,a systematic discussion is conducted on the three major challenges featuring China’s energy transition,namely the coal-dominated energy structure,the increasing growth in energy demand,and the urgent timeline for carbon neutrality.One of the main focuses is placed on exploring the technical feasibility of achieving an 80%share of renewable energy in primary energy consumption by 2060.Based on the comparative analysis of different energy transition pathways,the multifaceted characteristics of China’s carbon neutrality pathways are pointed out.A method for optimizing these pathways is proposed,considering economic costs,environmental impacts,and system reliability comprehensively,aiming to provide a theoretical basis and practical reference for achieving carbon neutrality and energy transition goals.