新能源汽车动力电池回收利用政策影响效应的仿真研究

Simulation study on the efficacy of policies regarding retired new energy vehicle batteries

大规模新能源汽车动力电池逐步退役,如何做到有效回收利用成为社会难题。研究结合我国新能源汽车退役动力电池回收利用产业发展实际,建立考虑成本与收益的动力电池回收利用系统动力学模型,对回收利用技术创新、补贴与税收优惠和推进梯次利用3项政策进行单一政策及组合政策的影响效应进行情景仿真分析。研究显示:回收产业发展初期经济性较差,2026年前投资回报率低于10%的预期水平;与没有政策干预的基准情景相比,回收利用技术创新政策可以有效促进退役动力电池中金属资源回收,预计到2035年时锂金属回收量比基准情景提高25.3%;补贴与税收优惠政策能激励企业扩大回收利用产能,提高退役动力电池回收量;推进梯次利用政策的实施可降低动力电池生命周期内的碳排放,梯次利用比例提升到50%的政策情形下,2035年可减少近430万t碳排放;3项政策的影响存在耦合效应,在组合实施情景下,2035年退役电池回收量接近800万t。基于政策仿真结果,研究提出了促进我国新能源汽车动力电池回收利用产业发展的政策建议。

This paper aims to explore the effectiveness of incentive policies aimed at promoting the recycling of retired New Energy Vehicle Batteries(NEVBs)in China.Taking into account the current state of China s NEVBs recycling industry,a system dynamics model integrating costs and benefits was constructed to simulate the trajectory of China s NEVBs recycling from 2018 to 2035.Additionally,multi-scenario policy simulations were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of three typical policies:promoting technological innovation,offering subsidies and tax incentives,and advancing cascade utilization.The findings indicate that:(1)Recycling of NEVBs offers both economic and environmental advantages.Nevertheless,the economic feasibility of the industry s initial phase is relatively modest,with an anticipated return on investment of below 10%before 2026.(2)In comparison to the baseline scenario devoid of policy intervention,the policy aimed at promoting technological innovation demonstrates effectiveness in boosting metal resource recycling and lowering recycling unit costs.This reduction in costs and enhancement in efficiency are anticipated to foster sustainable industrial progress.By 2035,it is projected that lithium metal recovery could increase by 25.3%.(3)The subsidy and tax rebate policy could effectively boost the investment return rate,thereby incentivizing enterprises to expand their recycling capacity.Offering a unit recycling subsidy of 1015 yuan per kilowatt-hour can notably boost the recovery volume of NEVBs.(4)The policy of advancing cascaded utilization can better harness the remaining value of retired batteries,thereby reducing their lifecycle carbon emissions.Under the scenario of increasing the cascaded utilization rate to 50%,it is projected that by 2035,nearly 4.3 million tons of carbon emissions could be reduced.(5)The impact of the three policies exhibits a coupling effect,resulting in the recovery of decommissioned batteries in 2035 reaching close to 8 million tons under the combined scenario.Based on the policy simulation results,recommendations are proposed to promote the development of China s new energy vehicle battery recycling industry.