Analysis and prediction of disease burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use in China from 1990 to 2030

Objective Tocomprehensively understandthe disease burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by alcohol use in China from 1990 to 2019,as well as to predict the trends in disease burden from 2020 to 2030.Methods The analysis utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019(GBD2019).Key indicators such as incidence rate,mortality rate,disability-adjusted life years(DALY),years of life lost due to premature mortality,and years lived with disability were selected to describe the disease burden of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China from 1990 to 2019.The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was used to depict the temporal trends in disease burden.Furthermore,a Bayesian age-period-cohortt(BAPC)model was constructedd using R software to predict the agestandardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China from 2020 to 2030.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China showed an upward trend,with an EAPC of 0.31%(95%Cl:0.10%-0.52%).However,the DALY declined,with an EAPC of-2.81%(95%CI:-2.92%-2.70%).