论预测性司法

On Predictive Justice

预测性司法是以系统论与运筹学为底色,以风险防控为导向的算法预测实践,遵循数据驱动的经验主义认识论。在安全治理需要、国家顶层推动以及政法科技创新的交叠影响下,我国预测性司法迅速发展,在引发刑事司法联结社会、治理社会、组织业务、决策理性等运行逻辑结构嬉变的同时,也与刑事司法价值形成内生冲突。基于良法善治的要求,应以“规制-认知-规范”总体合法性为切入点,基于比例原则确保预测性司法的合规部署和严格适用;按照司法价值敏感设计推动算法与数据二元治理,破除透明度与准确性悸论;围绕数字资本的均衡分布,以轻推为限度确保司法人员决策自主性、以关系伦理学强化诉讼参与人的有效参与。

Predictive justice represents a methodological shift towards algorithmic risk prediction and prevention based on systems theory and operations research,adhering to a data-centric empirical epistemology.Driven in response to public security governance imperatives,top-level national initiatives,and innovations in legal and technological fields,China's predictive justice has developed rapidly.While this has transformed the operational logic of criminal justice by integrating social governance,organizational functions,and rational decision-making,it has also led to inherent conflicts with the values of criminal justice.To align with principled legislation and sound governance,a holistic approach to legality encompassing"regulation-cognitionnorm"frameworks is imperative to ensure predictive justice's compliant execution and stringent application premised on the principle of proportionality.A judicial value-sensitive algorithmic and data governance model is advocated to resolve the transparency-accuracy paradox.Under the framework of normative legitimacy centered on the balanced distribution of digital capital,it is necessary to safeguard judicial autonomy through measured facilitation and fortify litigant engagement via relational ethics.