“双支柱”政策的结构性功能——基于产业绿色转型视角

The Structural Role of the Dual-Pillar Policy:Insights from the Perspective of Industrial Green Transformation

本文通过构建包含多种“双支柱”政策的DSGE模型,评估了不同“双支柱”政策支持产业绿色转型的有效性。研究发现:(1)再贷款政策、差别存款准备金率政策和差别流动性覆盖率约束政策,均是通过定向降低银行部门融资成本来引导信贷投放,这三种结构性政策降成本的力度,分别取决于再贷款利率、法定存款准备金利率和超额存款准备金利率,三种政策可以通过调整政策力度的方式达到同样的政策效果;(2)差别风险加权因子政策,主要是通过金融加杠杆的方式来引导产业结构调整,往往会引起资产价格大幅波动,对产业绿色转型的影响小于前三种政策;(3)央行储备资产配置政策,往往会在金融市场中与金融部门形成竞争关系,导致银行部门投向绿色产业的信贷规模下降,进而弱化央行储备资产配置政策的政策效果;(4)在经济和金融周期中引入合适的逆周期结构性政策,可有效促进产业绿色转型和改善居民福利,但长期的结构性政策可能会对居民福利产生一定负面影响。

To facilitate China's industrial green transformation and meet its dual-carbon targets,the People's Bank of China has introduced a suite of monetary and macro-prudential policies.These policies aim to align with the"dual-pillar"policy objectives and include using green loans and bonds as eligible collateral in monetary operations,creating carbon reduction tools,supporting clean coal utilization,and integrating green finance into MPA assessments.However,the inclusion of green transformation goals within these policy frameworks remains controversial.This study incorporates various dual-pillar policies into a DSGE model to analyze their impacts on industrial green transformation and the mechanisms underlying this impact.It thus lays the theoretical groundwork for a dual-pillar framework aligned with carbon neutrality.This study makes three key contributions.(1)We innovatively introduce liquidity coverage ratio constraints on the banking sector into the model,providing a theoretical framework for the central bank's evaluation of liquidity constraint policies.(2)We quantitatively compare the effectiveness of different dual-pillar policies on industrial green transformation and clarify the transmission mechanisms of these policies by integrating refinancing policy,differential reserve requirement ratio policy,differential liquidity coverage ratio constraint policy,differential risk-weighted asset policy,and central bank reserve asset allocation policy into a unified theoretical framework.(3)We conduct an expanded analysis of both countercyclical and normalized structural dual-pillar policies to assess their impacts on macroeconomics and industrial green transformation.We compare the welfare losses of residents under various exogenous shocks when different dual-pillar policies are coordinated and integrated.This research provides insights into the development of a dynamic dual-pillar policy framework aligned with carbon neutrality goals.The findings of this paper are as follows.(1)Refinancing,differential reserve requirement ratio,and liquidity coverage ratio policies guide credit allocation by reducing the banking sector's financing costs.The effectiveness of a refinancing policy hinges on the refinancing rate,the impact of a differential reserve requirement ratio policy is contingent upon the statutory reserve requirement rate,and the efficacy of a liquidity coverage ratio constraint policy is determined by the excess reserve requirement rate.By adjusting the intensity of these three types of policies,their impacts on industrial green transformation can be standardized.(2)A differential risk-weighted asset policy primarily guides industrial structural adjustments through financial leverage,which often leads to significant fluctuations in asset prices.The impact of such a policy on industrial green transformation is typically smaller than that of the refinancing,differential reserve requirement ratio,and liquidity coverage ratio policies.(3)The central bank reserve asset allocation policy often leads to competition with the financial sector in the financial market,resulting in a decrease in the credit scale allocated by banks to the green industry;consequently,the impact of the central bank reserve asset allocation policy on industrial green transformation is relatively minor.(4)Introducing countercyclical structural policies during economic and financial cycles can effectively promote industries'green transformation and improve residents'welfare.Importantly,however,long-term structural policies may have negative impacts on residents'welfare.Based on these findings,several policy recommendations are proposed.(1)The refinancing,differential reserve requirement ratio,and liquidity coverage ratio constraint policies exhibit strong substitutability;when one policy is constrained,monetary authorities can consider using the other two policies as substitutes.Additionally,policymakers can enhance the effectiveness of these policies by lowering the refinancing,statutory reserve requirement,and excess reserve requirement rates,respectively.While risk-weighted asset and central bank reserve asset allocation policies have substantial impacts on the total credit scale,their influence on industrial structural transformation is minor;accordingly,central banks should implement these policies cautiously.(2)During economic downturns,policy authorities can increase support for green industries by implementing loose monetary policies.Conversely,during economic upturns,authorities can prioritize tightening policies on brown industries by executing contractionary monetary policies.(3)Establishing dynamic policy mechanisms to mitigate the adverse welfare impacts of structural policies is also recommended to ensure sustainable economic development.