大规模需求市场与全球价值链空间集聚分布

Large demand market and global value chain spatial agglomeration distribution

大规模需求市场是构建“双循环”新发展格局的核心优势之一,也是重塑全球价值链的重要力量。拓展Antràs and Gortari的全球价值链地理模型,理论分析大规模需求市场对全球价值链生产空间分布的影响,并借助WIOD数据,构建大规模需求市场临近距离指标进行实证检验。研究发现,大规模需求市场诱致全球价值链生产空间集聚,具体表现在:第一,越临近大规模需求市场,地区的全球价值链生产位置越呈现下游化,且下游生产环节间空间临近性越强;第二,越临近大规模需求市场,参与全球价值链的后向地理优势越强,后向参与度越高;第三,越临近大规模需求市场,价值链长度越向外延伸,区域内部生产联系越强。并且,以上生产空间集聚存在行业差异,主要表现在规模经济较强及运输成本较高的行业。研究结论为全球价值链区域化发展与价值链区域化存在的风险提供理论证据,为“双循环”新发展格局下协调扩大内需战略与主导区域价值链建设之间关系的政策设计提供参考。

A substantial demand market is a core advantage of building a new"dual circulation"development pattern and is also an important force in reshaping the global value chain.This study extends Antras and Gortari's global value chain geographic model,analyzes the impact of a large demand market on the spatial distribution of the global value chain from a theoretical perspective,and empirically examines it with the help of the WIOD data and the construction of proximity distance indicators of large demand markets.It is found that a substantial demand market induces the spatial agglomeration of the global value chain.This is specifically reflected in several ways.First,the closer to the large demand market,the more downstream the production location in the regional global value chain,and the stronger the spatial proximity between downstream production links.Second,the closer to the large demand market,the stronger the backward geographical advantage of participating in the global value chain and the higher the backward participation.Third,the closer to the large demand market,the longer the outward extension of the value chain and the stronger the regional internal production connection.Moreover,the spatial agglomeration effect differs between industries and is mainly seen in industries with strong economies of scale and high transportation costs.The study provides theoretical evidence for the development of regionalization of global value chains and the risks of regionalization of value chains.Further,it provides a point of reference for designing policy to coordinate the strategy of expanding domestic demand and dominating regional value chain construction under the new"dual circulation"development pattern.