中国奶业发展的现实困境、重大问题与对策思路

The Current Predicament, Major Issues, and Policy Perspectiveson the Development of China’s Dairy Industry

2023年,中国奶业产业产出快速增长与需求动力不足的矛盾更加突出,价格快速下降与成本居高不下的冲突导致行业面临十多年来最困难局面。在此困境下,中国奶业还面临四个方面重要问题:产业发展面临两个不平衡,产业脆弱性加剧;奶业产业发展与其民生属性有较大差距;资本化超大规模养殖的发展模式不利于国家战略目标的落实;产业政策体系建设有待强化。困难局面与发展不平衡等结构问题表明中国奶业已到了调整发展方向、发展模式的关键时期,调整的核心应该是以发挥民生属性为根本落脚点推动奶业振兴,提升消费者福利、奶牛养殖业的基础性地位和家庭牧场的主体地位;进一步强化国家战略与目标的指导作用,提升奶业在保障重要农产品供给安全、落实绿色发展理念中的作用。

In 2023,the contradiction between the rapid growth of output and insufficient demand in China’s dairy industry became more prominent,with rapidly declining prices and persistently high costs,leading to the most difficult situation the industry has faced in more than a decade.Amidst this predicament,China’s dairy industry faces four major issues:the development of the industry faces two imbalances,and the fragility of the industry is increasing;there is a significant gap between the development of the dairy industry and its essential nature as a livelihood industry;the development model of large-scale capitalized livestock farming is not conducive to the implementation of national strategic objectives;and the construction of an industrial policy system needs to be strengthened.The difficult situation and structural problems such as development imbalances indicate that China’s dairy industry has reached a critical period to adjust its development direction and model.The core of the adjustment should be to promote the revitalization of the dairy industry with its essential livelihood attribute as the fundamental basis,enhancing consumer welfare,the foundational status of dairy farming,and the leading role of family farms.Furthermore,it is necessary to further strengthen the guiding role of national strategies and objectives,and enhance the role of the dairy industry in ensuring the supply security of important agricultural products and implementing the concept of green development.