山东县域城市建成区扩张影响因素的时空异质性研究

Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors in the expansion of urban built-up areas in Shandong counties

为提高山东城市用地的利用效率,促进山东城市经济可持续发展,基于山东137个县区2010年、2015年、2021年三个时点的城市用地扩张数据集,采用探索性空间分析、GW概要统计量和MGWR模型,对城市建成区扩张及其影响因素的时空异质性进行分析。研究发现:(1)山东县域城市建成区面积总体不断扩张,具有鲁中、鲁东部地区大于其他地区的空间分布特征,形成以济南、青岛为“双核心”的城市扩张态势。(2)建成区扩张驱动机制由“经济城市化驱动为主,人口城市化驱动为辅”转向“人口城市化驱动为主,经济城市化驱动为辅”,且二者存在不协调不匹配的问题。(3)地均投资对建成区扩张的影响,从整体负向效应演变为正负效应并存态势,至2021年51%的县区不具有显著的负向效应,表明半数以上的县区已丧失内涵式发展潜力。(4)经济发展水平、财政收支缺口率、出口依存度对建成区扩张的影响相对较小,但各变量均具有显著的时空异质性效应。其中经济发展水平从整体正向效应转向正负效应并存,再演变为整体正向效应;财政收支缺口率从整体负向效应转向增强的正负效应,再转为减弱的整体负向效应;出口依存度从整体的正向效应演变为整体的负向效应。鉴于山东县域城市建成区扩张驱动机制显著的时空异质性演变规律,应通过综合性与差异性的政策措施,推动山东县域城市化建设的协调可持续发展。

In order to improve the efficiency of urban land use and promote the sustainable development of urban economy in Shandong province,this paper uses exploratory spatial analysis,GW summary statistics and MGWR model to analyze the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of urban built-up areas expansion and its influencing factors based on the urban land expansion datasets of 137 counties in the province in 2010,2015 and 2021.The results show that:(1)The overall county-level built-up area in Shandong was expanding continually with the spatial distribution characteristics that the area was larger in the central and eastern regions of the province than that in other regions,forming an urban sprawl tendency with Jinan and Qingdao as the"dual cores";(2)The driving mechanism of the expansion of the built-up area transformed from"economic urbanization as the main driving force,and population urbanization as the auxiliary driving force"to"population urbanization as the main driving force,and economic urbanization as the auxiliary driving force",having the problem of incongruity and mismatch between the two;(3)The impact of land-average investment on builtup area expansion evolved from an overall negative effect to a situation where positive and negative effects coexist,with 51%of counties and districts showing no significant negative effects by 2021,indicating that more than half of them had lost their potential for intrinsic development of urban construction land;(4)The influences of economic development,fiscal expenditure gap rate,and export dependence were relatively small,but each variable had significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity effects.Among them,economic development transitioned from an overall positive effect to a situation where positive and negative effects coexist and then evolved into an overall positive effect;the fiscal expenditure gap rate transitioned from an overall negative effect to an enhanced situation of positive and negative effects and then reverted to a weakened overall negative effect;and the export dependence transitioned from an overall positive effect to an overall negative effect.In view of the significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the driving mechanism for the expansion of the county-level built-up area in Shandong,the coordinated and sustainable development of the urbanization in counties should be promoted through comprehensive and differential policies.