气候变化对川渝赏花旅游的影响与人类适应行为

Impact of climate change on blossom viewing tourism and human adaptation behaviors in Sichuan and Chongqing,China

基于中国物候观测网北碚和仁寿物候观测站点1973-1996年和2003-2012年18种植物物候观测数据,1987-2014年川渝权威报纸赏花节庆日期数据,采用时间序列分析和相关分析方法,评估了气候变化对赏花旅游的影响与人类适应行为。结果表明:气候变化对川渝地区赏花旅游的影响以有利为主,50%的植物赏花季长度显著延长,27.8%的植物赏花季长度显著缩短;中国人偏好的观赏物种中,气候变化对山茶和山桃的赏花旅游活动有利,对紫玉兰不利。温度是影响赏花季长度变化的主要因素,花期前一个月或前三个月温度每升高1℃,赏花季长度大多数延长5.99~7.57天或4.41~11.71天,少数缩短1.99天或2.26~4.99天。50%的赏花旅游活动组织者尚未意识到气候变化影响,没有采取正确适应策略;50%的赏花旅游活动组织者根据温度变化调节节庆日期,科学的方法应为根据物候动态调整赏花节庆日期。

This study aims to integrate phenology research theories,methods,and data into the fields of tourism and climate change.Using first flowering date and last flowering date of 18 spe‐cies during 1973-1996 and 2003-2012 in two phenological observation sites(Beibei and Renshou)from China Phenological Observation Network,and over 800 data records of the date on blossom viewing festival during 1987-2014 from authoritative newspapers in the study area,the impact of climate change on blossom viewing tourism and human adaptive behavior was assessed by methods of time series analysis and correlation analysis.The results showed that:(1)Climate change generally has positive impacts on blossom viewing activities in Sichuan and Chongqing,China.It extended the blossom viewing season length for 50%(9 species)of plants,and shortened it for 27.8%(5 species)of plants.Among the preferred viewing species in China,climate change was found to benefit the blossom viewing and tourism activities of camellia and mountain peach,but had a detrimental effect on purple magnolia.(2)Air temperature emerged as the primary factor influencing the blossom viewing season length.An increase of 1℃in air temperature one month prior to the flowering date extended the blossom viewing season length by 5.99-7.57 days or shortened it by 1.99 days.Similarly,1℃increase in air temperature three months before the flowering date extended the blossom viewing season length by 4.41-11.71 days or shortened it by 2.26-4.99 days.(3)50% of the organizers of blossom viewing activities were unaware of the impact of climate change and had not implemented appropriate strategies to adapt to it.Additionally,50% of the festival dates were adjusted based on changes in air tem‐perature.The study recommends adopting a scientific approach that adjusts the dates of blossom viewing festivals according to phenological dynamics.The study's findings offer a scientific foundation for directing the public and tourists in engaging in blossom viewing tourism.Additionally,they contribute to the scientific planning of plant landscapes in tourist destinations.This holds considerable theoretical importance and practical value,enhancing the climate change impact assessment and adaptation research framework.It also broadens the scope of tourism science research,establishes a novel discipline development direction,and furnishes a theoretical foundation for the tourism industry to address climate change.