扩大中等收入群体路径探析——基于随机森林模型画像

Exploring Path for Expanding Middle-income Group:A Quantitative Study Based on Random Forest Model Profiling

本文将扩大中等收入群体对象细分为“提低、入中、稳中”三个层级,运用随机森林模型对不同收入群体的特征进行画像,基于特征指标重要度排序确定影响各收入群体的主要因素,进而设计差异化扩中路径。研究发现,年龄、工资性收入、经营性收入和转移性收入在偏低收入群体与潜在中等收入群体之间呈现较大的分布差异,是“提低”环节需要重点关注的特征;食品支出、居住支出、交通通讯支出、教育文化娱乐支出和其他支出对推动潜在中等收入群体越级、实现低收入者“入中”有显著影响;受教育程度、社会参与和家庭规模与新增中等收入群体脆弱性程度紧密相关,是巩固扩中成果必须考虑的因素;医疗保健支出、衣着支出、社会公平、社会信任、职业类型、家庭劳动力占比和生活困难则在低收入群体向中等收入行列迈进的全过程均有重要作用。应该建立科学的政策扶持机制,分类制定差异化政策,打造以保障劳动报酬和转移收入为基石、以激活经营和财产收入与社会参与为支撑、以优化教育水平与家庭劳动结构为牵引、以提升消费层次与生活质量为导向的多层次、立体化扩中平台。

The paper subdivides the process of expanding the middle-income group into three levels,namely,“improving,expanding and stabilizing”,and uses the random forest model to depict the characteristics of different income groups.Based on the importance ranking of characteristic indicators,the main factors affecting each income group are determined,and then a differentiated expansion path is designed.It is found that age,salary income,operating income and transfer income show large differences in distribution between the low-income group and the potential middle-income group,and these characteristics need to be emphasized in the“improving”segment.Food expenses,housing expenses,transportation and communication expenses,education,culture and entertainment expenses,and other expenses have a significant impact on facilitating the leapfrogging of potential middle-income group to realize the expansion of the middle-income group.Education level,social participation and family size are closely related to the vulnerability of newly added middle-income group and must be considered to consolidate the gains of the“expanding”segment.Healthcare expenses,clothing expenses,social equity,social trust,occupational types,proportion of household labor force and living difficulties all play an important role in the whole process of low-income group moving towards middle-income group.A scientific policy support should be established,and differentiated policies should be formulated to build a multilevel platform for expanding the middle-income group with guaranteed remuneration for work and transfer income as the cornerstone,activation of operating and property incomes and social participation as a support,optimization of education levels and the family labor structure as a pull,and upgrading of the level of consumption and the quality of life as the direction.