2024年上半年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望

Analysis and prospects of oil and gas resources situation at home and abroad in the first half of 2024

2024年上半年,热点地区持续动荡,俄乌冲突延宕至今,呈现长期化,巴以冲突持续升级并存在外溢风险,也门胡赛武装持续袭击红海水域目标,冲击国际海运。世界经济缓慢复苏,地区发展不平衡,新兴经济体引领全球经济增长。“欧佩克+”产油国为托底油价持续减产,美国等非欧佩克产油国产量保持高位。地缘政治、宏观经济、“欧佩克+”联合减产等因素冲击国际石油市场,国际油价在诸多不确定的因素叠加下,在中高位宽幅震荡。全球石油供需稳定增长,总体平衡。受冬季气候温和、库存充足、欧洲等主要天然气市场供需结构改善等因素影响,世界主要天然气市场价格继续保持在较低水平。我国经济发展延续回升向好态势,矿政管理改革稳步推进,油气勘探开发力度持续加大,油气找矿成效显著,常规油气勘探在塔里木盆地、四川盆地、准噶尔盆地、鄂尔多斯盆地、渤海湾盆地等大型含油气盆地新区带、新类型、新层系取得多项突破和发现,非常规油气勘探在四川盆地及周缘、准噶尔盆地等取得多项重要突破和进展。原油产量稳步增长,天然气产量较快增长。预计2024年下半年,国际油气供需总体平衡,油气市场仍面临宏观经济、金融利率、能源政策、地缘事件等因素影响。预计2024年国内石油产量有望超2.12亿t,天然气(含页岩气和煤层气等)产量将超2400亿m3。

In the first half of 2024,hot spots continue to be turbulent,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been prolonged,the Palestinian Israeli conflict continues to escalate and there is a risk of spillover,and Yemeni Hussai armed forces continue to attack targets in the Red Sea area and impact international shipping.The world economy is slowly recovering,regional development is uneven,and emerging economies are leading global economic growth.OPEC+oil producing countries continue to reduce production to support oil prices,while non OPEC oil producing countries such as the United States maintain high production levels.Geopolitics,macroeconomics,OPEC+joint production cuts and other factors have impacted the international oil market,causing international oil prices to fluctuate widely at mid to high levels due to the combination of many uncertain factors.The global oil supply and demand are steadily increasing and overall balanced.Affected by factors such as mild winter climate,sufficient inventory,and improved supply and demand structure in major natural gas markets such as Europe,the prices of major natural gas markets around the world continue to remain at a relatively low level.China’s economic development continues to rebound and show a positive trend.The reform of mining management is steadily advancing.The exploration and development of oil and gas continue to increase,and the results of oil and gas exploration are significant.Conventional oil and gas exploration has made many new discoveries in new areas,new types,and new layers of large oil and gas basins such as Tarim,Sichuan,Junggar,Ordos,and Bohai Bay.Unconventional oil and gas exploration has made many important breakthroughs and progress in Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas,Junggar and other basins.Crude oil production is steadily increasing,while natural gas production is growing rapidly.It is expected that in the second half of 2024,the overall balance of international oil and gas supply and demand will be maintained,and the oil and gas market will still be affected by macroeconomic,financial interest rates,energy policies,geopolitical events,and other factors.It is expected that domestic oil production will exceed 212 million tons by 2024,and natural gas(including shale gas and coalbed methane)production will exceed 240 billion cubic meters.