基于层次分析-模糊综合评判的煤矿企业风险评估研究

Research on risk assessment of coal mine enterprises based on AHP-FCE method

为定量地综合评价煤矿企业风险水平,并为煤矿企业风险管控和安全管理工作提供一个可操作的、动态的风险评估方案。首先,结合煤矿事故的特点,根据系统性、全面性、能用性和可操作性的原则,从人、物、环境和管理四个方面着手,构建一个煤矿企业风险评估指标体系。其次,基于层次分析法和模糊综合评判,提出层次分析-模糊综合评判煤矿企业风险评估方法。最后,通过煤矿案例分析,利用数字化处理原始定性数据的手段,实现对煤矿工业整体风险水平的定量评估和分析。本文提出的风险评估方案具有多重意义:第一,可用于同一煤矿同一时期的风险评估,以协助煤矿安全管理工作的有效开展;第二,可以用于同一煤矿不同时期的风险评估,若按季度进行风险评估工作,可将各季度进行比较,追踪煤矿风险随时间的变化;第三,可用于不同煤矿之间风险对比分析,若应用于不同煤矿同一时期的风险评估工作,可对不同煤矿的风险管理工作进行评比,以起到激励作用。此外,若对风险评估指标体系进行相应改变,提出的风险评估方案也可应用于其他行业。

To quantitatively assess the risk level of coal mining enterprises comprehensively,it provides an operational and dynamic risk assessment scheme for coal mining enterprises risk control and safety management.Firstly,considering the characteristics of coal mine accidents,a risk assessment index system of coal mining enterprises is constructed from four aspects:personnel,equipment,environment,and management,grounded in the principles of systematicity,comprehensiveness,applicability,and operability.Subsequently,based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation(FCE),an AHP-FCE method for risk assessment of coal mining enterprises is proposed.Finally,leveraging coal mine case analysis and employing digital processing techniques for raw qualitative data,quantitative assessment,and analysis of the overall risk level of the coal mining industry are achieved.The significance of our proposed risk assessment scheme is manifold.Firstly,it can be used for risk assessment of the same coal mine during the same period to assist in the effective implementation of coal mine safety management.Secondly,it can be used for risk assessment of the same coal mine during different periods.If risk assessment work is conducted quarterly,comparisons can be made between quarters to track changes in coal mine risk over time.Thirdly,it can also be used for comparative analysis of risks between different coal mines.If applied to risk assessment work of different coal mines during the same period,it can compare the risk management work of different coal mines to serve as an incentive.Additionally,if corresponding changes are made to the risk assessment index system,the proposed risk assessment scheme can also be applied to other industries.