全球铬矿贸易网络格局演化及竞争力分析

Evolution of trade network pattern of chromium ore in global and analysis of competitiveness

铬矿作为我国短缺的战略性矿产资源之一,对支撑新兴产业发展、保障国家资源安全有重要意义。为厘清全球铬矿贸易格局演化特征和竞争优势,本文基于复杂网络方法,选取了2009-2023年全球铬矿贸易数据,构建了有向加权贸易网络,分析全球铬矿贸易网络演化特征,识别了核心贸易国及其在贸易网络中的角色,并根据产业集中度指数和寡占指数定量分析典型成员国竞争优势及演化趋势。研究结果表明:全球铬矿贸易网络正趋向多元化,网络的复杂性不断加强,具有较高的连通性,传输效率有所提升;少数国家控制着全球铬矿贸易,节点度高的国家在贸易网络中占据核心地位,南非、德国、荷兰、中国始终处于贸易网络的最核心位置,意大利、土耳其、印度、法国、巴基斯坦等国家处于次核心地位;铬矿产品属于高集中寡占型,且随着时间的推移,C8寡占成员国对铬矿的竞争优势更明显,垄断程度日益增加,且进入C8寡占成员国名单的国家总体变动不大。此外,根据研究结果,提出了相关政策建议,为分析全球铬矿贸易格局和潜在风险提供了基础。

As one of the strategic mineral resources facing shortage in China,chromium ore plays an important role in supporting the development of emerging industries and ensuring the security of national resources.In order to clarify the evolution characteristics and competitive advantages of the trade pattern of chromium ore in global,this paper selects the global chromium ore trade data from 2009 to 2023,applies complex network method to building a directional-weighted trade network.The paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of chromium ore trade network,identifies core trading countries and their roles in the trade network.And the competitive advantage and evolution trend of typical member countries are quantitatively analyzed according to the industrial concentration index and oligopoly index.The results show that the trade network of chromium ore in global is trending towards diversification,the complexity is increasing,the network has high connectivity,the transmission efficiency has been improved,and it is tending to diversified.A few countries control the trade of chromium ore in global,and countries with high node degree occupy a core position in the trade network.South Africa,Germany,the Netherlands,and China are always in the core position of the trade network,while Italy,Turkey,India,France,Pakistan and other countries are at the secondary core.Chromium ore products belong to the high-concentrated oligopoly type.As time goes by,the C8 oligopoly countries have more obvious competitive advantages in chromium ore,and the degree of monopoly is increasing.Countries in the list of C8 oligopoly countries have little change in general.In addition,according to the research results,the relevant policy recommendations are put forward to provide a basis for analyzing the global chromium ore trade pattern and potential risks.