能源转型背景下全球镍资源供需形势分析

Analysis of supply and demand of nickel resources in global under the background of energy transition

全球16%、中国22%的镍用于新能源汽车动力电池领域,使得该领域成为仅次于不锈钢的第二大消费部门,面对全球能源转型背景下镍在电池领域新的消费增长点,保障动力电池生产所需的镍资源可靠及可持续供应至关重要。中国是全球最大的镍资源消费国和进口国,分析全球镍资源供需及产业最新变化趋势对国家制定相关紧缺矿产资源产业链供应链稳定政策具有重要现实意义。根据全球新能源汽车产业用镍情况,分析原生镍消费结构、消费变化数据,运用部门分析法预测了2030年全球镍需求量。以全球镍储量、勘探预算变化、主要资源国资源储量变化、镍矿及镍中间品和原生镍生产,以及全球镍贸易总量数据为基础,开展全球镍资源供需和产业变化研究。研究结果表明:未来全球镍产量能够满足镍在电池领域的消费需求增长;硫酸镍和含镍生铁成为重要的原生镍产品;镍湿法冶炼中间品氢氧化镍钴和高冰镍取代镍豆和镍粉成为硫酸镍最经济的生产原料。据此提出加强镍资源供需走势研判、开展镍产品国家储备研究及资源回收利用技术研发等建议。

With 16%of global nickel and 22%of Chinese nickel used in power batteries field for new energy vehicles,it has become the second largest consumption sector after stainless steel.In the face of the new consumption growth of nickel in the battery field in the context of global energy transition,it is crucial to ensure the reliable and sustainable supply of nickel resources for power battery production.China is the world’s largest consumer and importer of nickel resources,analyzing the global supply and demand of nickel resources and the latest trends in the industry is of great practical significance for the country to formulate policies to stabilize the supply chain of the relevant scarce mineral resources industry chain.Combined with the nickel used in the global new energy vehicles industry,it analyzes the primary nickel consumption structure,consumption change data,and forecasts the global demand for nickel in 2030 by using the sectoral analysis method.Based on the global nickel reserves,changes in exploration budgets,changes in the resource reserves of major resource countries,nickel ore and nickel intermediates,and the production of primary nickel,as well as the total amount of global nickel trade,it carries out a study on the global nickel resource supply,demand and industrial changes.The paper concludes that the future global nickel production can meet the growth of nickel consumption demand in the field of batteries,nickel sulfate and nickel-containing pig iron have become important primary nickel products,and nickel wet smelting intermediates nickel cobalt hydroxide and high ice nickel have replaced nickel beans and nickel powder to become the most economical raw materials for the production of nickel sulfate.It also puts forward recommendations on the strengthening of research on the trend of nickel supply and demand,the conduct of research on the national reserves of nickel products,and the research and development of technology of recycling and utilization of resources.