长三角城市公园绿地与人口的异速生长关系分析

Analysis on the Relationship Between Urban Park Green Space and Population Allometry in the Yangtze River Delta

目前,中国新型城镇化进程加快,部分大城市已经呈现出高密度发展的态势,人地矛盾日益加剧,本研究以中国长三角城市为对象,构建公园绿地面积—人口异速生长模型测度公园绿地面积和人口的关系,以1997—2021年为时间跨度,分析两者异速增长关系的时间变化规律。以人均建设用地面积变化率波动程度为依据,将研究时间以2008年作为时序划分节点,对长三角城市总体为对象进行宏观分析,以长三角内各城市为对象进行深化剖析。研究结果表明:(1)从宏观长三角区域层面分析,1997—2021年长三角城市公园绿地面积和人口呈现全时段正异速增长关系。1997—2008年长三角城市公园绿地面积—人口异速系数差异显著,2009—2021年长三角城市公园绿地面积—人口异速系数变化趋于平缓。(2)在城市分化特征层面,1997—2008年各城市异速增长系数多低于0.85,公园面积增速普遍低于人口增速,2009—2021年各城市异速增长系数多高于0.85。

At present,China's new urbanization is accelerating,and some large cities have shown the trend of high-density development,and the contradiction between people and land is growing increasingly.This paper takes the cities in the Yangtze River Delta in China as the object,and builds the park green space area and population allometry model to measure the relationship between park green space area and population,and then analyzes the time change law of the allometric growth relationship between the two with the time span of 1997-2021.Based on the fluctuation degree of the per capita construction land area change rate,the research time is divided into time series nodes by taking 2008 as the chronological order.Then a macro analysis is conducted on the overall urban population in the Yangtze River Delta,and each city within the Yangtze River Delta is analyzed in depth.The research results indicate that:(1) from the macro level analysis on the Yangtze River Delta region,the green space area and population of urban parks in the Yangtze River Delta region showed a positive and uneven growth relationship throughout the entire period from 1997 to 2021.From 1997 to 2008,there was a significant difference in the differential coefficient between the green area and population of urban parks in the Yangtze River Delta.From 2009 to 2021,the change in the differential coefficient between the green area and population of urban parks in the Yangtze River Delta tended to be gradual.(2) At the level of urban differentiation characteristics,from 1997 to 2008,the coefficient of uneven growth in various cities was mostly lower than 0.85,and the growth rate of park area was generally lower than the population growth rate.From 2009 to 2021,the coefficient of uneven growth in various cities was mostly higher than 0.85.