应急响应程序时效性评估方法研究

Research on the Timeliness Evaluation Method of Emergency Response Procedures

突发事件应急响应效果评估是提高应急响应能力和水平的重要手段。由于突发事件的突发性、机理复杂、信息不完全以及应对具有时间窗口等,多指标综合评估和仿真方法一般难以满足实际的评估需求。为此,采用构造时效性评估函数的方法,既能在不完全信息下借助专家经验进行评估,又能反映应急响应程序中一环扣一环的影响关系。基于前期研究,本研究构造了一种新型的时效性评估函数,构造算例验证了函数的有效性,且使得函数最优性质的分析更简便,为应急准备、应急响应相关决策问题提供理论依据。

The evaluation of emergency response effectiveness is an important means to improve capabilities and levels of emergency response.Due to the suddenness,complex mechanisms,incomplete information,and time windows involved in responding to emergencies,multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation and simulation methods are generally difficult to meet practical evaluation needs.Therefore,the method of constructing a timeliness evaluation function is adopted,which can not only rely on expert experience for evaluation under incomplete information,but also reflect the impact relationship of each link in emergency response procedures.Based on previous research,a new type of timeliness evaluation function was constructed,and numerical examples were constructed to verify the effectiveness of the function.This made the analysis of the optimal properties of the function more convenient,providing a theoretical basis for decisionmaking problems related to emergency preparedness and response.