数字经济、中心城市与产业结构变迁——基于中部地区80个城市的空间计量研究

Digital Economy, Central Cities, and Industrial Structure Changes-Spatial econometric research based on 80 cities in central China

数字经济与实体经济深度融合进程不断加快,正在重塑我国经济空间发展格局。现有研究更多基于全国层面进行分析,缺乏从区域角度、空间角度的分析,对城市异质性在影响机制中的作用也较少关注。本文利用2011—2019年中部地区80个城市的面板数据,分析数字经济对产业结构变迁的空间溢出效应,并通过中介效应、门槛效应对影响机制进行进一步探索。研究结果表明:根据空间效应的检验和分解结果,数字经济对本地和相邻城市的产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化都有积极影响;根据机制分析结果,中心城市在数字经济影响产业结构变迁中发挥了重要的中介作用。数字经济会提高省会城市首位度,从而促进产业结构合理化。同时,数字经济通过缩小产业结构差异,对产业结构合理化和高级化产生积极影响;进一步研究发现,数字经济对产业结构变迁的调节具有非线性特征。当中心城市规模过大时,数字经济对产业结构合理化和高级化的影响程度会下降。

The process of deep integration between the digital economy and the real economy is accelerating,and it is reshaping the spatial development pattern of China’s economy.Existing research is more based on national level analysis,lacking analysis from regional and spatial perspectives,and paying less attention to the role of urban heterogeneity in the impact mechanism.This article uses panel data from 80 cities in the central region from 2011 to 2019 to analyze the spatial spillover effects of the digital economy on industrial structure changes,and further explores the impact mechanism through intermediary effects and threshold effects.The research results indicate that,based on the testing and decomposition of spatial effects,the digital economy has a positive impact on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure in both local and adjacent cities;According to the mechanism analysis results,central cities have played an important intermediary role in the impact of digital economy on industrial structure changes.The digital economy will increase the primacy of provincial capital cities,thereby promoting the rationalization of industrial structure.At the same time,the digital economy has a positive impact on the rationalization and advancement of industrial structure by narrowing the differences in industrial structure;Further research has found that the regulation of industrial structure changes by the digital economy has non-linear characteristics.When the scale of the central city is too large,the impact of the digital economy on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure will decrease.