面向不完备态势的复杂系统效能评估方法研究

Research on Effectiveness Evaluation Methods for Complex System Facing Incomplete Situations

针对任务态势信息不完备的情况,复杂系统执行任务过程存在不确定性和动态性,导致效能评估困难。基于动态概率有限状态机的效能评估方法,开展了复杂系统协同运用效能的评估研究,并通过案例验证了不完备态势下的复杂系统效能评估方法的可行性。首先,基于德尔菲方法分析状态转移概率矩阵,改进优化了动态概率有限状态机方法模型;然后,以旋翼无人机集群为例,针对灾害地区态势不完备情况,确定集群协同执行任务的状态与输入,建立动态概率有限状态机模型计算其应用效能与相对效能;最后,通过分析集群运用效能以及相对效能得出结论,即电量耗尽和无人机受损导致集群协同应用效能下降超过0.2,对集群协同运用效能的影响较大,建议改装电池或增加无人机数量,实现侦察灾害区域、投送物资的目的。

In the modern diversified environment,there are uncertainties and dynamics in the process of task execution of complex systems due to incomplete mission situation information,which makes it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness.Based on the efficiency evaluation method of Dynamic Probabilistic Finite State Machine(DPFSM),this paper carries out a research on the evaluation of the cooperative performance of complex systems,and verifies the feasibility of the performance evaluation method of complex systems under incomplete situation through a case.Firstly,the state transition probability matrix was analyzed based on the Delphi method,and the DPFSM method model was improved and optimized.Then,taking the rotary-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)swarm as an example,in view of the incomplete situation in the disaster area,the status and input of the swarm cooperative task were determined,and the DPFSM model was established to calculate its application efficiency and relative efficiency.Finally,by analyzing the efficiency and relative efficiency of swarm operation,it is concluded that the efficiency of swarm collaborative application decreases by more than 0.2 due to power depletion and UAV damage,which has a great impact on the efficiency of swarm cooperative application,and it is recommended to modify the battery or increase the number of UAVs to achieve the purpose of reconnoitring disaster areas and delivery of supplies.