中国农业高质量发展的动态演进研究

Dynamic Evolution of High-quality Agricultural Development in China

在构建农业高质量发展评价指标体系的基础上,利用时变熵值法测度2003—2020年中国30个省市的农业高质量发展水平,进一步采用Kernel核密度估计方法和Markov链分析方法识别农业高质量发展的分布动态演进趋势。结果表明:(1)尽管中国农业高质量发展的空间差异不断缩小,依然存在一定梯度效应。(2)随着时间跨度增加,农业高质量发展水平的流动性逐渐增强,但低水平地区短期内仍难以实现跨越式跃升,空间地理因素对农业高质量发展的分布动态演进具有显著影响。未来,亟待充分发挥农业高质量发展的空间溢出效应,加强地区间互动与合作,促进农业高质量发展水平跨区域协同提升。

On the basis of constructing an evaluation index system for high-quality agricultural development,the time-varying entropy method was used to measure the level of high-quality agricultural development in 30 provinces of China from 2003 to 2020.Furthermore,the Kernel density estimation method and Markov chain analysis method were used to identify the dynamic evolution trend of high-quality agricultural development.The results indicated that although the spatial differences in the high-quality development of agriculture in China was shrinking,there was still a certain gradient effect.(2)With the increase of time span,the liquidity of high-quality agricultural development level gradually increased,but the low-level areas were still difficult to achieve a leapfrog leap in the short term.Spatial and geographical factors had a significant impact on the dynamic evolution of the distribution of high-quality agricultural development.In the future,it is urgent to fully leverage the spatial spillover effect of high-quality agricultural development,strengthen regional interaction and cooperation,and promote cross regional synergy in improving the level of high-quality agricultural development.