10 kV带电作业风险评估模型构建与应用研究

Research on construction and application of risk assessment model for 10kV live working

为准确评估带电作业中关于10kV架空线路带电接支接线路引线的风险因素,建立1种基于灰色关联度法和贝叶斯网络模型相结合的风险综合评估模型。首先,通过分析593项带电作业事故案例,利用灰色关联度法计算出人、物、环境、管理4种风险因素关联系数。然后,将带电作业分为验电阶段、确认支接线路阶段、设置绝缘遮蔽—拆除和离开阶段、做支接线路搭接阶段,并针对专家打分结果运用Netica软件计算风险因素后验概率,构建贝叶斯网络安全评估模型。最后,对研究结果进行综合权重计算,建立10 kV带电作业风险评估模型。研究结果表明:贝叶斯后验概率的计算结果更倾向人和设备设施因素,而综合灰度计算之后,提高了环境因素权重,评估结果与以往的历史数据更加吻合。灰度计算结合贝叶斯模型的综合评价方法能够更真实地反映实际电力作业情况。研究结果可为电力作业风险评估提供理论和方法参考。

In order to accurately assess the risk factors of live connecting branch line lead wire for 10 kV overhead line in live working,a comprehensive risk assessment model based on the grey relational analysis and Bayesian network model was established.Firstly,593 cases of live working accidents were analyzed,and the relation coefficients of four risk factors,including human,material,environment and management,were calculated by the grey relational analysis.Secondly,the live working was divided into the electricity checking stage,confirming branch line stage,setting insulation shielding stage,removing and leaving stage,and making branch line lap stage.According to the expert scoring results,the Netica software was used to calculate the posterior probabilities of risk factors,and a Bayesian network safety assessment model was constructed.Finally,the comprehensive weight calculation was conducted on the results,and a risk assessment model of 10 kV live working was established.The results show that the calculation result of Bayesian posterior probability is more inclined to the human factor and the equipment and facility factor,while the weight of environment factor is increased after combining the grey scale calculation.The assessment results are more consistent with the previous historical data,which proves that the comprehensive assessment method of grey scale calculation combined with Bayesian model can more truly reflect the practical power operation situation.The research results can provide theoretical and methodological support for the risk assessment of electric power operations.