“双碳”背景下我国钴资源需求预测及分析

Forecast and Analysis of Cobalt Resource Demand in China Under the Background of"Dual Carbon"

文章分析了“双碳”目标背景下我国钴资源消费结构,并基于2015—2022年中国钴消费总量及其构成(3C电池、动力电池等),分别构建传统GM(1,1)、新信息GM(1,1)和新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,选取最佳模型对2025—2030年我国钴资源消费情况进行预测。研究结果表明:未来我国对钴的需求量将呈逐年上升趋势,2030年消费量预计将达到20.84万吨,其中动力电池占比将逐渐超过3C电池等其他领域,成为钴资源消费构成的最大部分。为保障我国钴资源供应,建议优化勘探技术,加强技术创新和钴资源回收利用;推动国际合作,建立我国钴资源保障体系。

The article analyzed the consumption structure of cobalt resources in China under the background of the"dual carbon"target,and constructed traditional GM(1,1),new information GM(1,1),and metabolism GM(1,1)models respectively based on the total cobalt consumption and its composition(3C battery,power battery,etc.)in China from 2015 to 2022.And the best model was selected to predict the consumption of cobalt resources in China from 2025 to 2030.The research results indicate that the demand for cobalt in China is expected to rise annually,with consumption projected to reach 208,400 tonnes by 2030,among which the proportion of power battery will gradually surpass 3C battery and other fields,and become the largest component of cobalt resource consumption.In order to ensure a stable supply of cobalt resources in China,it is suggested to optimize the exploration technology,strengthen technological innovation,and promote the recycling of cobalt resources.Meanwhile,it is also recommended to promote international cooperation and establish China's cobalt resource guarantee system.