论中国青年人口结构性变迁

On Structural Changes of China’s Youth Population

自2000年以来,中国青年人口经历了不平衡、不充分的发展过程。青年人口结构性变迁主要体现在:青年人口数量和占比发生惯性缩减;性别比失衡加剧,带来青年婚配难题和其他社会风险;在科学文化素质升级推动人口和经济高质量发展的同时,青年人口健康素质结构出现新问题;青年人口就业行业结构分布呈现多元化,但人力资源和人才资源的开发利用仍不充分;自由流动带来青年人口在地区和城乡之间的再分布,在推动城市发展的同时也增加了区域发展不平衡的风险;婚育推迟趋势明显,不婚不育比例上升,独居青年增多且独居时间延长,增加了青年个体原子化的风险。其中,青年人口数量和占比缩减很大程度上是由人口年龄结构本身的迭代造成的。在生育水平持续下降的情况下,每一代的出生人口数量都在减少,这使我国陷入低生育—少子化的恶性循环。长期来看,以青年为主体数量的人口结构已一去不复返。针对这些问题的政策建议是:资源向职业教育倾斜、引导健康平衡的人才流动、建设妇幼保健友好环境等。

Since 2000,the structural changes of China’s youth population have mainly been reflected in:the inertia reduction in quantity and proportion;the exacerbation of gender imbalance bringing difficulties to youth marriage and other social risks;up-graded scientific and cultural literacy promoting high-quality development of population and economy but creating new problems in the structure of health;diversified distribution of employment industry structure but still insufficient development and utiliza-tion of human and talent resources;free mobility bringing about redistribution of young people between regions and between ur-ban and rural areas,promoting urban development,but also increasing the imbalance risk of regional development;obvious trend of delayed marriage and childbirth,growing proportion of unmarried and infertile individuals,increased number of young people living alone with prolonged period of time,and increased risk of individual atomization among young people.Among them,the reduction in the number and proportion of young people is mainly caused by the iteration of the population age structure itself.Because of persistent low fertility levels,the number of births in each generation is decreasing,leading to a vicious cycle of low fertility and birth decline in China.The policy recommendations for addressing these issues are to tilt resources towards vocation-al education,guide for healthy and balanced flow of talents,and build friendly environment for maternal and child health care.