“双碳”目标下绿色发展的就业效应——基于中国30个省(区、市)的实证分析

The Employment Effects of Green Development under the“Dual Carbon”Goals:An Empirical Analysis of 30 Provinces,Districts and Municipalities in China

“双碳”目标下,如何既推动绿色发展又增加就业,是需要研究的重要问题。基于2007-2021年中国省级面板数据,分析绿色发展水平与就业规模的时空演变趋势,运用面板双向固定效应、中介效应、门槛效应模型,深入探讨绿色发展对就业规模的影响及作用机制。研究发现,我国绿色发展水平和就业规模均呈现出由东部沿海地区向中西部地区延伸的空间结构;绿色发展对就业规模具有显著的促进作用;绿色发展对就业规模的影响存在异质性,对东部地区和以第三产业为主的地区就业规模促进作用更为显著;绿色发展通过产业结构升级能够进一步促进就业规模的扩大。因此,要健全绿色低碳转型政策体系,采取动态化、差异化的绿色发展战略促进区域协调发展,同时通过提升劳动力技能缓解劳动力市场的错配问题,有效发挥产业结构升级促进就业规模扩大的作用,助力经济高质量发展。

Under the“Dual Carbon”goals,how to promote green development and increase employment is an important issue worth studying.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2021,the present paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution trend of green development level and employment scale to deeply explore the impact of green development on employment scale and its mechanism by using panel two-way fixed effects,mediating effects and threshold effect models.The results indicate that the green development level and employment scale in China present a spatial structure extending from the eastern coastal regions to the central and western regions;green development can significantly promote the employment scale heterogeneously,with more significant effect in the eastern region and the regions dominated by the tertiary industry;and green development can further expand employment scale through industrial structure upgrading.Therefore,to effectively leverage the role of upgrading industrial structure in expanding employment scale for high-quality economic development,it is necessary to improve the green and low-carbon transition policy system,promote coordinated regional development by adopting dynamic and differentiated green development strategies,and alleviating the misallocation of labor market via labor skill upgrading.