基于因子分析的广东省各区县热浪抵抗力分析

Analysis of heatwave resistance in the districts and counties of Guangdong province based on factor analysis

在全球气候变暖背景下,热浪事件发生的频率不断增加,给人居环境和人类健康带来了不利影响。已有研究表明,自然因素和社会经济因素均会影响热浪事件的强度。因此,综合考虑自然、社会和经济指标来反映对热浪事件的抵抗力尤为重要。本研究聚焦于广东省各区县,选取了涉及以上3个方面的指标,使用因子分析方法提取到3个公因子,分别为个体抵抗因子、公共抵抗因子和自然抵抗因子,其累计贡献率达到90.029%,能够较为准确地反映区县尺度下热浪事件的抵抗能力。结果表明,热浪抵抗力在广东省内存在明显的不平衡性,抵抗能力强的区县集中在珠三角地区。根据因子得分进行特征组合,可将广东省内各区县分为5类,分别是抵抗力脆弱区、个体抵抗力提高区、公共抵抗力提高区、自然抵抗力提高区和抵抗力强劲区。大部分区县在热浪抵抗力上既存在优势方面,也存在不足之处。本研究针对不同类别的区县提出相应建议,以期为缓解热浪事件影响提供科学依据。

Under the backdrop of global warming,the frequency of heatwave events has been increasing,adversely affecting the living environment and human health.Existing studies suggest that both natural and socio-economic factors influence the intensity of heatwave events.Therefore,it is particularly important to consider a comprehensive set of natural,social,and economic indicators to assess resistance to heatwaves.This study selects indicators related to the three aforementioned aspects through factor analysis concerning the districts and counties of Guangdong Province.Three common factors are extracted:individual resistance factor,public resistance factor,and natural resistance factor,which have a cumulative contribution rate reaching 90.029%and can accurately reflect the resistance capacity to heatwave events at the county scale.The results show a significant imbalance in heatwave resistance within Guangdong Province,with districts having strong resistance concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region.Based on the factor scores,the districts and counties in Guangdong Province can be divided in to five categories:vulnerable resistance zone,individual resistance enhancement zone,public resistance enhancement zone,natural resistance enhancement zone,and strong resistance zone.Most districts and counties have both strengths and weaknesses in their resistance to heatwaves.The study provides specific suggestions for different categories of districts and counties,hoping to offer a scientific basis for mitigating the impacts of heatwave events.