海上风功率预测精度的影响因素及提升方法研究

Influencing Factors and Accuracy Improvement Methods for the Wind Power Prediction of Offshore Wind Farms

相比于陆上风电,海水的高比热容、海上的风流热效应等独特的地理环境使得海上风资源的随机性和间歇性更强,进而导致海上风功率变化较大且难以预测。目前,风功率预测相关研究主要集中于陆上风电,少有针对海上风电功率模型的分析和讨论。通过对海上风资源的特点、风功率预测案例的分析研究,并以我国北方某海上风电场为例,深入分析海上风电功率预测模型的关键影响因素,明确算法层面和非算法层面存在的问题,提出了潜在改进方案的相应思路与方法,可供进一步研究参考。

Compared to onshore wind power projects,the unique geographical environments of offshore wind farms such as the high specific heat capacity of seawater and the thermal effects of offshore wind flow make the offshore wind resources more random and intermittent,leading to significant variation and prediction difficulty of the offshore wind power.At present,researches on wind power prediction mainly focus on onshore wind power,with few analysis and discussion on offshore wind power models.With the analysis on the characteristics of offshore wind resources and wind power prediction cases,an offshore wind farm in northern China is studied as an example,and the key influencing factors in offshore wind power prediction models are analyzed in depth.Various issues at the algorithmic and non-algorithmic levels are identified,and corresponding ideas and methods for potential improvement schemes are proposed,which can useful reference for further research.