养老保险全国统筹对地方政府征管行为的影响研究

Study on the impact of pension insurance national pooling on the collection and management behavior of local governments

实现基本养老保险全国统筹是我国多层次、多支柱养老保险体系建设的重要环节。基于2012—2022年省级面板数据,将全国统筹初级阶段的中央调剂制度作为准自然实验,探讨中央调剂制度对地方政府征管行为的影响及作用机制。研究发现:中央调剂制度降低了地方政府对养老保险基金的征管强度,中央调剂制度实施后,基金缺口地区存在“压力缓解效应”,基金盈余地区存在“基金收益受损效应”。在经济发展水平高、财政压力小和老龄化程度低的地区,中央调剂制度对地方政府征管强度的负向影响更为明显。进一步分析表明,严征管和降费率改革在中央调剂制度与地方政府征管行为之间发挥调节效应。研究结论为加快实现养老保险全国统筹提供了经验依据,对增强地方政府征管治理能力具有重要启示。

Realizing the national pooling of basic pension insurance is an important part of constructing China's multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system.Based on provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022,the article takes the central transfer system at the primary stage of national pooling as a quasi-natural experiment to explore the impact of the central transfer system on the local government's collection behavior and the mechanism of its action.The study finds that the central transfer system reduces the intensity of local governments'collection and management of the pension insurance fund,and that after the implementation of the central transfer system,there exists a"pressure-relieving effect"in areas with fund shortfalls,and a"fund revenue-impairing effect"in areas with fund surpluses.In regions with high levels of economic development,low fiscal pressures and low levels of aging,the negative impact of the central transfer system on the intensity of local governments'collection and management is more pronounced.Further analysis shows that the reforms of strict regulation and rate reduction play a moderating effect between the central transfer system and the collection and management behavior of local governments.The conclusions of the study provide empirical evidence for accelerating the realization of national pooling of pension insurance,and offer important insights for enhancing the collection and management and governance capacity of local governments.