C3和C5航线运价影响因素研究

Research on factors influencingf reight rates in C3 and C5 routes

为了更好地掌握C3和C5航线运价指数的波动规律,降低航运经营者和投资者贸易投资的风险,基于AIS数据建立短期运价回归模型。在船舶运力和油价的基础上,提出区域运力作为影响航线运价的新因素,并采用多元线性逐步回归法在未加入区域因素和加入区域因素的2种情况下分别对C3和C5航线运价进行回归分析。实例验证表明,加入区域因素后C3和C5的短期运价回归模型拟合度较未加入区域因素时回归模型的拟合度分别提高了0.072和0.071,短期预测的效果较好,可为航运经营者提供一定的决策支持。

In order to better grasp the fluctuation law of freight index of C3 and C5 routes and reduce the risk of trade and investment of shipping operators and investors,a short-term freight rate regression model is established based on AIS data.On the basis of ship capacity and oil price,regional capacity is proposed as a new factor affecting route freight rates,and multiple linear stepwise regression method is used to conduct regression analysis on C3 and C5 routes freight rates without and with regional factors respectively.The example verification shows that the fitting degree of C3 and C5 short-term freight rate regression models with regional factors is 0.072 and 0.071 higher than that without regional factors,respectively.The effect of short-term prediction is better,which can provide certain decision support for shipping operators.