基于主成分分析的潍坊市水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Principal Component Analysis in Weifang

为了科学评价潍坊市的水资源承载力,本文从水资源、社会经济、生态环境3个方面选取了16个指标构建评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法和GM(1,1)模型对水资源承载力时间变化特征进行综合评价和预测,并分析其主要影响因素。结果表明:水资源自然禀赋条件是影响潍坊市水资源承载力的主要因素,其次是用水情况;潍坊市2012—2022年水资源承载力整体呈上升趋势,预测得出2023—2027年水资源承载力呈逐年递增趋势,表明其水资源状况态势向好发展,也说明潍坊市全面建设节水型社会,大力推进污水治理取得了较好的成效。

In order to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity,this paper selects 16 indicators from three aspects of water resources,social economy and ecological environment to build an evaluation index system.The principal component analysis(PCA)and GM(1,1)model were used to evaluate and predict the temporal variation of water resources carrying capacity,and the main influencing factors were analyzed.The results show that natural endowments of water resources are the main factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources in Weifang,followed by water use.The water resources carrying capacity shows an overall upward trend from 2012 to 2022,and it is predicted that the water resources carrying capacity will show an increasing trend year by year from 2023 to 2027,indicating that the situation of its water resources is developing well,and it also shows that Weifang has achieved good effects in comprehensively building a water-saving society and vigorously promoting sewage treatment.