数字化转型能提升农村商业银行的盈利能力吗

Can Digital Transformation Improve the Profitability of Rural Commercial Banks

基于2015—2021年江苏省县域47家农村商业银行全机构调查数据,构建农村商业银行数字化转型评价指标体系,考察数字化转型对农村商业银行盈利能力的影响。研究发现:整体上,数字化转型通过“降本增效”渠道提升农村商业银行盈利能力。考虑了数字化转型成本和收入的阶段性特征,面板门槛模型检验发现,数字化转型与农村商业银行盈利能力之间呈现先抑制后促进的非线性关系。异质性分析表明,数字化转型对小规模农村商业银行盈利能力的提升作用主要体现在同期,且影响逐渐减弱,而对大规模农村商业银行盈利能力的提升作用主要体现在长期,且影响逐渐增强。进一步讨论发现,相较于处于低数字接入水平地区的农村商业银行,数字化转型对处于高数字接入水平地区的农村商业银行盈利能力有显著提升作用。研究结论对于推动农村金融高质量和可持续发展具有一定的政策启示。

Based on the survey data of 47 rural commercial banks in all counties of Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2021,this paper constructs a digital transformation evaluation index system for rural commercial banks to examine the impact of digital transformation on the profitability of rural commercial banks.The study finds that,overall,digital transformation improves the profitability of rural commercial banks through the“cost reduction and efficiency enhancement”channel.Considering the stage characteristics for the cost and revenue of digital transformation,the panel threshold model test finds a non-linear relationship between digital transformation and the profitability of rural commercial banks that is first inhibited and then promoted.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of digital transformation on the profitability of small-scale rural commercial banks is mainly in the same period,and the impact is gradually weakened,while the effect on the profitability of large-scale rural commercial banks is mainly in the long term,and the impact is gradually increased.Further discussion reveals that digital transformation has a significant effect on the profitability of rural commercial banks located in areas with high level of digital access and insignificant effect on the profitability of rural commercial banks located in areas with low level of digital access.The findings of the study have certain policy implications for promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of rural finance.