产业结构调整对农民工收入增长的影响——基于行业异质性的视角

The Impact of Industrial Structure Adjustment on Migrant Workers'Income Growth:A Perspective of Industry Heterogeneity

行业劳动生产率的提升以及劳动力在不同劳动生产率部门之间的再配置,是产业结构调整影响劳动者收入的核心机制。本文基于行业异质性的视角,利用全国1%人口抽样调查、全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和布朗分解方法,识别产业结构由第一产业向第二产业、由第二产业向第三产业的调整对农民工收入增长的影响。研究发现,与第一次产业结构调整时期(2005-2010年)相比,行业劳动生产率提升速度下降,是第二次产业结构调整时期(2015-2018年)农民工收入增速放缓的最主要原因。同时,由农民工个体特征导致的第二产业进入概率的增加,以及由技术进步、产业政策等导致的第三产业进入概率的增加,成为第二次产业结构调整时期农民工平均收入增长的主要驱动因素。研究认为,维持行业劳动生产率持续提升、合理有序推动农民工跨行业转移、促进农民工人力资本积累,是保持农民工收入可持续增长的有效途径。本文的研究对于明确农民工收入增长的来源和驱动因素、理解产业结构变革对农民工就业和收入的作用机理具有重要的参考价值。

The enhancement of industrial labor productivity and the reallocation of labor among sectors with varying levels of labor productivity are fundamental mechanisms through which industrial structure adjustments influence workers'income.This study,from the perspective of industry heterogeneity in employment structure,utilizes data from the Mini-Census2005,CMDS2010,CMDS2015,and CMDS2018 combined with the Brown decomposition method to assess the impact of the industrial shift from the primary to the secondary sector and from the secondary to the tertiary sector on the income growth of migrant workers.The findings indicate that,compared to the first phase of industrial restructuring(2005-2010),the slowdown in the rate of labor productivity improvements is the principal cause of the reduced income growth of migrant workers during the second phase of industrial restructuring(2015-2018).Concurrently,the increased likelihood of migrant workers entering the secondary industry due to their characteristics and the heightened probability of entry into the tertiary industry driven by technological advancements and industrial policies have been primary contributors to the rise in average income among migrant workers.The study concludes that sustaining continuous advancements in sectoral labor productivity,facilitating a well-organized and reasonable cross-sector transfer of migrant workers,and enhancing human capital accumulation among migrant workers are effective strategies to ensure sustainable income growth for this demographic.This research provides crucial insights into the sources and drivers of migrant workers'income growth.It elucidates the mechanisms by which changes in industrial structure impact employment and income for migrant workers.